高等教育赋能新质生产力发展的影响研究——基于双重机器学习模型的实证分析

Research on the Impact of Higher Education Empowering the Development of New Quality Productive Forces—An Empirical Analysis Based on a Double Machine Learning Model

摘要: 新质生产力以创新为核心，兼具高科技、高效能、高质量特征，高等教育作为科技、人才与创新的联结点，对其发展具有关键支撑作用。基于2013~2022年中国31个省市自治区面板数据，构建包含科技、绿色、数字生产力的评价指标体系，通过双重机器学习模型分析显示，高等教育对新质生产力发展呈显著正向作用，且在东北、西部及欠发达地区效果更突出。进一步分析表明，高等教育通过科技创新提升技术突破与成果转化能力、推动产业结构向高端化与服务化升级的双重路径，赋能新质生产力发展。为强化高等教育效能，建议优化区域资源配置，加大对欠发达地区的支持力度；深化“政产学研用”融合，构建协同创新生态；推进高等教育供给侧改革，提升学科与产业需求的适配度，以增强对新质生产力的支撑能力。

Abstract: New quality productive force, with innovation at its core, is characterized by high technology, high efficiency, and high quality. As a connecting point for science and technology, talent, and innovation, higher education plays a crucial supporting role in its development. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in China from 2013 to 2022, an evaluation index system including scientific and technological productivity, green productivity, and digital productivity was constructed. Analysis using a double machine learning model shows that higher education has a significantly positive effect on the development of new quality productive forces, and this effect is more prominent in the northeast, western, and less developed regions. Further analysis indicates that higher education empowers the development of new quality productive forces through a dual path: enhancing technological breakthrough and achievement transformation capabilities through technological innovation, and promoting the upgrading of industrial structures to high-end and service-oriented. To strengthen the effectiveness of higher education, it is recommended to optimize regional resource allocation and increase support for less developed regions; deepen the integration of “government, industry, university, research, and application” to build a collaborative innovation ecosystem; and promote the supply-side reform of higher education to improve the adaptability of disciplines to industrial needs, so as to enhance the supporting capacity for new quality productive forces.