数字经济对区域碳排放的影响研究——以长三角地区为例

Research on the Impact of Digital Economy on Regional Carbon Emissions—A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Region

摘要: 面对全球气候变化的严峻挑战和中国“双碳”目标的提出，探索经济增长与减排协同发展的路径至关重要。文章采用熵值法构建综合评价体系测度数字经济发展指标，依托2011~2020年长三角地区41个地级市的面板数据，使用基准回归模型、空间计量模型，实证检验数字经济对碳排放的作用机制。结果表明，数字经济发展与碳排放强度二者之间并非简单线性关系，呈现阶段性反向变化特征：在发展初期，由于数字基础设施建设等高能耗活动，数字经济表现出“增排”效应；但随着发展水平提升，其在优化资源配置、推动产业升级和促进绿色技术创新方面的优势逐步显现，最终转向显著的“减碳”作用，实证估算的拐点约为0.264，表明当前长三角多数城市仍处于“数字增排”阶段。产业结构升级是数字经济降低碳排放的重要中介路径，且碳排放具有显著的空间正相关性和集聚特征。研究结果为理解数字经济的环境效应提供了实证依据，强调应加快推动数字技术绿色化应用并加强区域协同治理，以助力“双碳”目标实现。

Abstract: In the face of the severe challenge of global climate change and the proposal of China’s “dual carbon” goals, it is of vital importance to explore a path for the coordinated development of economic growth and emission reduction. This study constructs a comprehensive evaluation system using the entropy method to measure digital economy indicator. Based on the panel data of 41 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2011 to 2020, the benchmark regression model and spatial econometric model were used to empirically test the mechanism of the digital economy on carbon emissions. The results show that the relationship between the development of the digital economy and carbon emission intensity is not a simple linear one, but rather presents a characteristic of phased reverse changes: In the early stage of development, due to high-energy-consuming activities such as the construction of digital infrastructure, the digital economy exhibits an “increased emission” effect; However, as the development level improves, its advantages in optimizing resource allocation, promoting industrial upgrading and facilitating green technological innovation have gradually emerged, eventually turning to a significant “carbon reduction” effect. The empirical estimate of the inflection point is approximately 0.264, indicating that most cities in the Yangtze River Delta are still in the “digital emission increase” stage at present. Upgrading the industrial structure is an important intermediary path for the digital economy to reduce carbon emissions, and carbon emissions have significant spatial positive correlations and agglomeration characteristics. The research results provide empirical evidence for understanding the environmental effects of the digital economy, emphasizing the need to accelerate the green application of digital technologies and enhance regional collaborative governance to facilitate the realization of the “dual carbon” goals.