老龄化背景下农村人口结构对区域消费水平的影响

The Impact of Rural Population Structure on Regional Consumption Levels in the Context of Aging

摘要: 在人口老龄化加速与乡村青壮年持续外流的双重背景下，中国农村人口结构呈现出老龄化加深、家庭小型化、劳动力弱化、收入结构脆弱的典型特征。本文采用定性研究方法，从人口年龄结构、家庭结构、劳动力结构与收入结构四个维度切入，系统剖析人口结构变动对区域消费总量、消费结构、消费意愿与消费市场的传导机制与影响效应。研究发现：农村老龄化与空心化叠加，显著压低区域消费增速与消费韧性，推动消费向生存型、医疗型、保守型倾斜；代际支持弱化、收入稳定性不足、公共服务供给滞后共同约束消费升级；不同区域因老龄化程度、集体经济基础与养老保障水平差异，呈现消费分化与结构异质性。研究提出，应通过增强收入基础、完善多层次社会保障体系、优化消费供给结构、转变保守消费观念、改善农村消费生态等路径，激活农村内需潜力。本文为老龄化背景下精准制定区域消费促进政策、推动乡村振兴与城乡融合发展提供了理论参考。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of accelerated population aging and the continuous outmigration of rural young adults, China’s rural population structure exhibits typical characteristics of deepening aging, shrinking household size, weakening labor force, and fragile income composition. Using a qualitative research approach, this paper systematically analyzes the transmission mechanisms and effects of demographic changes on regional consumption aggregate, consumption structure, consumption willingness, and consumer markets from four dimensions: age structure, family structure, labor structure, and income structure. The findings reveal that the superimposition of rural aging and hollowing-out significantly dampens the growth rate and resilience of regional consumption, pushing consumption toward subsistence-oriented, medical, and conservative patterns. The weakening of intergenerational support, insufficient income stability, and lagging public service provision jointly constrain consumption upgrading. Moreover, due to variations in the degree of aging, collective economic foundations, and old-age security levels across regions, consumption differentiation and structural heterogeneity are evident. The study proposes pathways such as enhancing income bases, improving multi-tiered social security systems, optimizing the structure of consumption supply, transforming conservative consumption concepts, and upgrading the rural consumption ecosystem to activate the potential of rural domestic demand. This paper provides theoretical references for precisely formulating regional consumption promotion policies and advancing rural revitalization and urban-rural integrated development in the context of aging.