北大西洋涛动对广东省气候的影响研究

The Impact of North Atlantic Oscillation on the Climate of Guangdong Province

摘要: 为深入分析近几十年北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO)对我国广东省气候的影响，本文基于1969~2019年CN05.1高分辨率格点气温资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及NAO指数，采用经验正交函数分解和相关分析等方法，系统性地研究冬季NAO与广东省同期及后期气温与降水的遥相关关系。结果表明：(1) 冬季NAO与广东省同期气候存在一定关联，尤其在温度方面存在差异，当NAO处于强相位时，广东省北部冬季气温偏低；反之，该区域气温则相对偏高；(2) 在气候响应的滞后性方面，冬季NAO与广东省北部春季的降水影响亦较显著。强冬季NAO利于广东省北部春季降水偏多，当冬季NAO偏弱时，广东省北部春季降水偏少。此外，冬季NAO与广东省西北部呈负相关，即NAO偏强时，该区域夏季降水偏少，反之亦然，说明NAO可能对广东地区夏季环流过程存在潜在影响。

Abstract: To conduct an in-depth analysis of the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the climate of Guangdong Province in China over the past few decades, this study is based on the CN05.1 high-resolution gridded temperature data from 1969 to 2019, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, and the NAO index. Using methods such as empirical orthogonal function decomposition and correlation analysis, it systematically investigates the teleconnection relationship between winter NAO and both concurrent and subsequent temperature and precipitation in Guangdong Province. The results indicate that: (1) there is a certain correlation between winter NAO and the concurrent climate of Guangdong, especially in terms of temperature differences. When the NAO is in a strong phase, the winter temperature in northern Guangdong tends to be lower; conversely, the temperature in this region is relatively higher; (2) regarding the lagged climate response, winter NAO also significantly affects spring precipitation in northern Guangdong. A strong winter NAO is conducive to more precipitation in northern Guangdong in spring, whereas a weak winter NAO corresponds to less spring precipitation in the region. In addition, winter NAO is negatively correlated with northwestern Guangdong, meaning that when NAO is strong, summer precipitation in this region tends to be lower, and vice versa. This suggests that NAO may have a potential impact on summer circulation processes in the Guangdong region.