城乡融合背景下农村电商渗透的概念界定与测度

Conceptualizing and Measuring Rural E-Commerce Penetration in the Context of Urban-Rural Integration

摘要: 在城乡融合和数字乡村建设持续推进的背景下，农村电商已成为连接乡村交易场景与城乡市场的重要渠道，但“农村电商渗透”的概念边界和测度口径尚未统一。现有研究常以网络零售额、电商交易额或政策试点身份加以刻画，这些变量分别反映市场规模或政策覆盖，难以同时体现交易条件是否可达以及相关服务是否被使用。文章将农村电商渗透界定为：平台化交易及其所依托的网络、终端、支付和物流配送等条件进入乡村交易场景，并被农村居民和经营主体使用的区域过程。基准样本包括31个省级行政区2013~2023年的341个“省份–年份”观测数据。在这一界定下，选取农村宽带接入用户密度、农村居民每百户移动电话拥有量和县域数字支付分指数，经全样本统一标准化后采用熵权法合成指数。三项指标的权重分别为63.71%、15.45%和20.84%。测算结果显示，31个省级行政区指数的算术平均值由2013年的0.1283升至2023年的0.4684；东部地区总体领先，中西部增幅较大，东北地区提升较慢。等权合成、缩尾处理和缩短样本期所得替代指数与基准指数的秩相关系数均高于0.96。该指数反映样本期内农村电商基础条件与支付使用的相对水平，可用于省际比较和年度动态分析。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of the continuous advancement of urban-rural integration and digital village construction, rural e-commerce has become an important channel linking rural transaction settings with urban and rural markets, the conceptual boundaries and measurement criteria of “rural e-commerce penetration” have not yet been unified. Existing studies often use online retail sales, e-commerce transaction volumes, or policy-pilot status. These variables capture market size or policy coverage but do not jointly indicate whether transaction-enabling conditions are accessible and whether related services are used. This study defines rural e-commerce penetration as the regional process through which platform-based transactions and their supporting networks, terminals, payment services, and logistics enter rural transaction settings and are used by rural residents and business entities. The baseline sample comprises 341 province-year observations for 31 provincial-level administrative regions from 2013 to 2023. Rural broadband subscriber density, mobile-phone ownership per 100 rural households, and a county-level digital-payment sub-index are normalized over the pooled sample and combined using entropy weights of 63.71%, 15.45%, and 20.84%, respectively. The measurement results show that the unweighted mean across the 31 provincial-level administrative regions rises from 0.1283 in 2013 to 0.4684 in 2023. The eastern region remains ahead, the central and western regions record larger increases, and the northeast improves more slowly. Rank correlations between the baseline index and alternatives based on equal weighting, winsorization, and a shorter sample period all exceed 0.96. The index captures the relative levels of rural e-commerce infrastructure and payment use during the sample period and supports comparisons across provincial-level administrative regions and years.