耐心资本的风险：产业数字化转型中的演化机制、仿真检验与治理框架

The Risk of Patient Capital: Evolutionary Mechanisms, Simulation Testing, and Governance Frameworks in Industrial Digital Transformation

摘要: 耐心资本是支撑产业高质量发展的关键要素，但若缺乏绩效约束与退出压力，可能在数字化转型中异化为懒散资本，以长期投资之名行消极监督之实。本文基于2003~2024年A股上市公司稳定型机构投资者持股数据，刻画耐心资本的演变特征，构建绩效衰退–资本反应仿真模型，通过蒙特卡洛模拟量化其蜕变为懒散资本的概率。研究发现，耐心资本在绩效恶化时惰性锁定现象显著；管理层战略漂移超临界阈值后长期回报大幅低于基准；约23.7%的样本呈现懒散化特征，在数字化转型滞后的传统产业中更突出。据此提出耐心而不懒散的动态绩效监督框架与分阶段容错退出机制。

Abstract: Patient capital is a key factor supporting high-quality industrial development. However, in the absence of performance constraints and exit pressure, it may degenerate into lazy capital during digital transformation, engaging in passive monitoring in the name of long-term investment. Using holdings data on stable institutional investors in A-share listed companies from 2003 to 2024, this paper characterizes the evolution of patient capital, constructs a performance decline-capital response simulation model, and quantifies the probability of its degeneration into lazy capital via Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that patient capital exhibits significant inertia lock-in when performance deteriorates; once managerial strategic drift exceeds a critical threshold, long-term returns are substantially lower than the benchmark; and approximately 23.7% of the samples exhibit lazy traits, a phenomenon more pronounced in traditional industries lagging in digital transformation. Accordingly, this paper proposes a dynamic performance monitoring framework that keeps patient capital patient but not lazy, and a phased fault-tolerant exit mechanism.