数字贸易对区域经济韧性的影响研究——基于省级面板数据的实证

Research on the Impact of Digital Trade on Regional Economic Resilience—An Empirical Study Based on Provincial Panel Data

摘要: 本文基于2015~2024年我国30个省级的面板数据，运用熵值法构建数字贸易综合指数和经济韧性综合指数，系统检验了数字贸易对区域经济韧性的影响效应、传导机制。研究发现：第一，数字贸易对区域经济韧性具有显著的正向促进作用。第二，机制检验表明，创业活跃度是数字贸易赋能经济韧性的重要传导路径。第三，异质性分析显示，数字贸易对经济韧性的促进作用在西部地区最为显著，且存在边际递减特征。

Abstract: Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2015 to 2024, this paper constructs the comprehensive index of digital trade and the comprehensive index of economic resilience using the entropy method, and systematically examines the impact effect and transmission mechanism of digital trade on regional economic resilience. The findings are as follows: First, digital trade has a significant positive promoting effect on regional economic resilience. Second, the mechanism test shows that entrepreneurial activity is an important transmission path through which digital trade empowers economic resilience. Third, the heterogeneity analysis reveals that the promoting effect of digital trade on economic resilience is the most significant in the western region, and exhibits a marginal diminishing characteristic.