企业未来产业布局与股价崩盘风险

Corporate Positioning in Future Industries and Stock Price Crash Risk

摘要: 在培育新质生产力与防范资本市场风险并重的背景下，厘清企业未来产业布局的资本市场后果具有重要现实意义。文章基于2015~2024年沪深A股上市公司数据，通过年报文本构建企业未来产业布局指标，考察其对股价崩盘风险的影响及作用机制。研究发现，未来产业布局显著降低股价崩盘风险，在增加固定效应、替换核心解释变量、剔除特殊时期样本及采用工具变量后，结论依然稳健。机制分析表明，未来产业布局通过抑制管理者短视和提高媒体关注度，减少坏消息积累与信息隐藏，进而降低股价崩盘风险。异质性分析表明，上述作用在大企业及管理层具有研发背景的企业中更为稳健。文章拓展了未来产业布局经济后果及股价崩盘风险影响因素的相关研究，并为统筹未来产业培育与资本市场稳定提供了微观证据。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of fostering new quality productive forces while safeguarding capital market stability, understanding the capital market consequences of corporate positioning in future industries is of considerable practical importance. Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed firms from 2015 to 2024, this study constructs a firm-level measure of future-industry positioning based on annual report text and examines its impact on stock price crash risk and the underlying mechanisms. The results show that corporate positioning in future industries significantly reduces stock price crash risk. This finding remains robust after controlling for additional fixed effects, replacing the key explanatory variable, excluding observations from the exceptional period, and addressing potential endogeneity using an instrumental-variable approach. Mechanism analyses indicate that future-industry positioning mitigates stock price crash risk by curbing managerial myopia and increasing media attention, thereby reducing the accumulation and concealment of bad news. Heterogeneity analyses further show that the risk-reducing effect is more robust among larger firms and firms whose managers have R&D backgrounds. This study extends the literature on the economic consequences of corporate positioning in future industries and the determinants of stock price crash risk, while providing micro-level evidence for coordinating future-industry development with capital market stability.