数字普惠金融与农村电商发展：促进效应与区域差异——基于省级面板数据的实证检验

Digital Inclusive Finance and Rural E-Commerce Development: Promotion Effects and Regional Differences—An Empirical Test Based on Provincial Panel Data

摘要: 数字普惠金融作为新型金融模式，通过数字技术提高了金融服务的普及与覆盖，为我国经济增长注入新动能。本文利用2013~2023年中国30个省级行政区的面板数据，采用双向固定效应模型，实证检验数字普惠金融对农村电商发展的影响。研究发现：第一，数字普惠金融显著促进了农村电商发展，数字普惠金融指数每提高1%，农村电商销售额提高约1.760%；第二，分维度来看，覆盖广度和数字化程度是主要驱动力，其中覆盖广度的促进作用最强，使用深度的作用尚未显现；第三，数字普惠金融的促进作用存在显著的区域异质性，东部地区最强，中部次之，西部地区的作用尚未显现；第四，农村居民收入水平在数字普惠金融促进农村电商发展中发挥正向调节效应，即收入水平越高，促进作用越强。本文结论为优化数字普惠金融政策、因地制宜促进农村电商高质量发展提供了实证依据。

Abstract: As a new financial model, digital inclusive finance improves the popularization and coverage of financial services through digital technology, injecting new momentum into China’s economic growth. This paper uses panel data of 30 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2013 to 2023 and adopts a two-way fixed effects model to empirically test the impact of digital inclusive finance on the development of rural e-commerce. The findings are as follows: First, digital inclusive finance significantly promotes the development of rural e-commerce. For every 1% increase in the digital inclusive finance index, rural e-commerce sales increase by approximately 1.760%. Second, in terms of sub-dimensions, coverage breadth and digitalization degree are the main driving forces, with coverage breadth having the strongest promoting effect, while the effect of usage depth has not yet emerged. Third, the promoting effect of digital inclusive finance exhibits significant regional heterogeneity, being strongest in the eastern region, followed by the central region, while the effect in the western region has not yet emerged. Fourth, the level of rural residents’ income plays a positive moderating role in the process of digital inclusive finance promoting rural e-commerce development. Specifically, the higher the income level, the stronger the promoting effect. These conclusions provide empirical evidence for optimizing digital inclusive finance policies and promoting high-quality development of rural e-commerce according to local conditions.