中国省域电子商务发展的空间格局及影响因素研究

Spatial Pattern and Influencing Factors of Provincial E-Commerce Development in China

摘要: 本文在空间自回归模型以及贝叶斯框架下，基于2023年中国31个省级行政区的相关数据，结合Metropolis-Hastings算法与Gibbs抽样算法探究了我国省域电子商务发展的空间格局及影响因素。模拟仿真研究证实了模拟的有效性，同时实证分析发现我国省域电子商务发展呈现显著的头部集聚与非均衡特征，形成“东高西低、沿海强内陆弱”的空间分异格局，市场开放度与人均GDP是驱动电商发展的核心动力，数字基建、科创投入等要素的赋能效应尚未充分释放。

Abstract: Under the framework of the spatial autoregressive model and Bayesian statistics, this paper explores the spatial pattern and influencing factors of provincial e-commerce development in China based on the relevant data of 31 provincial-level administrative regions in 2023, by integrating the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and Gibbs sampling. The simulation study verifies the effectiveness of the proposed estimation method. Meanwhile, the empirical analysis reveals that China’s provincial e-commerce development presents significant top-tier agglomeration and unbalanced characteristics, forming a spatial differentiation pattern of “high in the east and low in the west, strong in coastal areas and weak in inland areas”. Market openness and per capita GDP are the core driving forces for e-commerce development, while the empowering effects of factors such as digital infrastructure and scientific and technological innovation investment have not been fully unleashed.