基于新型垂直遥感地基观测的舟山一次梅雨期强对流演变及临近预警指示

Examining the Evolution and Nowcasting Warning Indications of a Meiyu-Season Severe Convection over Zhoushan Using Novel Ground-Based Vertical Remote Sensing Observations

摘要: 为揭示海岛地区梅雨期强对流的垂直结构及其临近监测特征，综合利用S波段天气雷达、毫米波云雷达、激光测风雷达、微波辐射计和自动气象站资料，对2026年7月3日舟山强对流过程进行分析。结果表明：影响嵊泗的对流单体组织性较强，具有钩状回波、V形缺口和高回波顶等特征，低层强降水持续约20 min，并产生23.4 m/s的雷暴大风；影响定海的对流系统瞬时强度相对较弱，但2 km以下降水回波持续约55 min，累计降水量达54.9 mm，表现出更显著的持续性强降水特征。毫米波云雷达清晰地记录了中高层水凝物增长、降水回波柱向下建立、混合相粒子发展及低层降水减弱的演变过程。激光测风雷达观测到低层上升运动向强下沉气流转变，以及高水平风速区向近地层传播，并与地面风速突增、降温和气压上升基本同步。低层风向转换、垂直风切变、近地层暖湿条件和高风速区下降对强对流临近监测具有一定指示意义。多源垂直遥感资料能够有效补充天气雷达对云微物理和边界层动力结构的观测，但强降水期间毫米波衰减及反演误差仍需结合多源资料综合识别。

Abstract: To reveal the vertical structure of Meiyu-season severe convection over the island region and its nowcasting monitoring characteristics, the severe convection event over Zhoushan on July 3, 2026 was analyzed by integrating data from an S-band weather radar, a millimeter-wave cloud radar, a wind lidar, a microwave radiometer, and automatic weather stations. The results show that the convective cell affecting Shengsi was well organized, exhibiting a hook echo, a V-shaped notch, and a high echo top; low-level heavy precipitation lasted approximately 20 min and produced a thunderstorm gale of 23.4 m/s. The convective system affecting Dinghai was relatively weaker in instantaneous intensity, yet precipitation echoes below 2 km persisted for about 55 min with an accumulated precipitation of 54.9 mm, indicating more pronounced persistent heavy precipitation. The millimeter-wave cloud radar clearly documented the evolution of hydrometeor growth in the middle and upper levels, the downward establishment of precipitation echo columns, the development of mixed-phase particles, and the weakening of low-level precipitation. The wind lidar observed the transition from low-level updrafts to strong downdrafts, as well as the downward propagation of high wind speed regions toward the surface layer, which was roughly synchronized with the abrupt increase in surface wind speed, temperature drop, and pressure rise. Low-level wind direction shifts, vertical wind shear, warm and moist conditions in the near-surface layer, and the descent of high wind speed regions provide an indicative value for the nowcasting monitoring of severe convection. Multi-source vertical remote sensing data can effectively supplement weather radar observations of cloud microphysics and boundary-layer dynamic structure; however, millimeter-wave attenuation and retrieval errors during heavy precipitation still require comprehensive identification in combination with multi-source data.