“情感讨好型虚拟消费”背景下消费者理性觉醒与行为转型——基于多元统计与机器学习的实证研究

The Awakening of Consumer Rationality and Behavioral Transformation in the Context of “Emotional Appeal-Based Virtual Consumption”—An Empirical Study Based on Multivariate Statistics and Machine Learning

摘要: 数字经济催生以情感代偿、社交认同为核心的情感讨好型虚拟消费(网络俗称“舔狗经济”)，直播打赏、虚拟恋人、节日情感礼品等非理性付费行为一度泛滥。伴随青年群体自我认知提升，消费者行为逐步由外部社交驱动转向内在悦己需求驱动，呈现明显理性觉醒趋势。本文以18~35岁线上情感消费群体为研究对象，基于448份问卷数据，构建“消费动机–理性消费转型”的分析框架，综合采用结构方程模型(SEM)、二元Logistic回归、CART决策树和随机森林模型，分析不同消费动机对青年消费者理性消费行为的影响机制及群体差异。实证结果表明：青年情感消费动机主要包括悦己型消费动机和社交导向消费动机两个维度；悦己消费动机是促进理性消费转型的核心因素，消费者越倾向于基于自身需求和价值判断进行消费，越容易形成自主化、理性化消费模式；社交消费具有情境依赖性，其既可能表现为关系维护和情感表达，也可能在外部压力和情绪驱动下增加非理性消费倾向；收入水平、年龄等个体因素会影响消费者行为路径，机器学习模型进一步揭示了不同消费动机组合下的群体异质性。多模型交叉验证结果表明，青年消费转型本质上体现为消费决策由外部认同导向逐渐向内部价值导向转变。基于研究结论，从平台治理、消费引导和市场供给三个方面提出优化建议，以促进数字情感消费市场规范发展，并推动青年群体形成更加健康、理性的消费观念。

Abstract: The digital economy has given rise to emotional appeal-based virtual consumption centered on emotional compensation and social recognition (commonly known as “licking dog economy” in online slang), with irrational spending behaviors such as live-streaming tips, virtual romantic relationships, and holiday emotional gifts once rampant. As young people’s self-awareness grows, consumer behavior gradually shifts from being driven by external social interactions to being driven by intrinsic self-fulfillment, showing a clear trend of rational awakening. This paper takes online emotional consumers aged 18 to 35 as research subjects and constructs an analytical framework of “consumption motivation—rational consumption transformation” based on data from 448 questionnaires. Structural Equation Model (SEM), Binary Logistic Regression, CART Decision Tree and Random Forest are comprehensively adopted to analyze the influence mechanism of diverse consumption motivations on young consumers’ rational behaviors as well as inter-group heterogeneity. The empirical results show that young people’s emotional consumption motivations fall into two dimensions: self-reward motivation and social-oriented motivation. Self-reward motivation acts as the core driver of rational consumption transformation. The more consumers base their spending on personal demands and self-value judgment, the more likely they are to develop independent, rational consumption patterns. Social consumption is context-dependent: it can serve as a way to maintain interpersonal bonds and express emotions, yet it may also boost irrational spending tendencies under external pressure and emotional impulses. Individual factors including income and age shape consumers’ behavioral paths. Machine learning models further reveal group heterogeneity under various combinations of consumption motivations. Cross-verification of multiple models indicates that the transformation of young consumers essentially reflects a shift of consumption decision-making from external recognition orientation to internal value orientation. Based on the research findings, optimization suggestions are put forward from three dimensions: platform governance, consumption guidance and market supply, so as to standardize the development of the digital emotional consumption market and foster healthier, more rational consumption values among young generations.