湖南省城镇居民消费影响因素分析——基于2014~2024年市州面板数据的双向固定效应检验

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Urban Residents’ Consumption in Hunan Province—A Two-Way Fixed Effects Test Based on Prefecture-Level City and Autonomous Prefecture Panel Data from 2014 to 2024

摘要: 为识别湖南省城镇居民消费增长的主要影响因素，本文基于2014~2024年湖南省14个市州年度面板数据，构建以城镇居民人均消费支出为被解释变量、以城镇居民人均可支配收入、居民消费价格指数和社会保障就业支出为核心解释变量的双向固定效应模型。在静态基准模型基础上，进一步构建包含一期滞后消费项的动态面板扩展框架，用于刻画消费惯性、区分收入等因素的短期效应与长期效应，并结合工具变量(IV)和系统广义矩估计(System GMM)思路讨论潜在内生性。结果表明：湖南省城镇居民消费与收入总体同步上升，但市州间差异明显；在控制市州固定效应、年份固定效应和相关控制变量后，可支配收入对消费支出具有稳定正向影响，收入弹性约为2.70；CPI系数方向为正但未达到常规显著性水平；社会保障就业支出方向为负但短期直接效应不稳定。进一步的稳健样本和扩展模型结果显示，收入效应仍保持显著。研究认为，提升居民可支配收入是湖南城镇消费扩容的基础路径，同时应保持民生价格稳定、提高社会保障支出的可感知性，并结合区域差异实施分类施策。

Abstract: To identify the main factors influencing the growth of urban residents’ consumption in Hunan Province, this study uses annual panel data for 14 prefecture-level cities and prefectures from 2014 to 2024 and constructs a two-way fixed effects model with urban residents’ per capita consumption expenditure as the dependent variable and urban residents’ per capita disposable income, the consumer price index (CPI), and expenditure on social security and employment as the core explanatory variables. On the basis of the static benchmark model, a dynamic panel extension including one-period lagged consumption is further constructed to characterize consumption persistence, distinguish the short-run and long-run effects of income and other factors, and discuss potential endogeneity using instrumental-variable (IV) and System GMM approaches. The results show that urban residents’ consumption and income in Hunan generally increased together, with clear differences across cities and prefectures. After controlling for city fixed effects, year fixed effects, and relevant control variables, disposable income has a stable positive effect on consumption expenditure, with an income elasticity of about 2.70. The CPI coefficient is positive but does not reach conventional significance levels, while social security and employment expenditure has a negative but unstable short-run direct effect. Results from the robust sample and extended model confirm the stability of the income effect. The findings suggest that increasing residents’ disposable income is fundamental to expanding urban consumption in Hunan, while maintaining price stability, improving the perceptibility of social security expenditure, and adopting differentiated regional policies are also important.