复杂社会技术系统事故的定量功能共振分析
Quantitative Functional Resonance Analysis of Accidents in Complex Socio-Technical Systems
DOI: 10.12677/ojtt.2026.155060, PDF,   
作者: 王宇莹：西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院，四川 成都；黄文成*：西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院，四川 成都；西南交通大学系统科学与系统工程研究所，四川 成都
关键词: 事故分析；复杂社会技术系统；定量功能共振分析；语言Z数；站点渗流模型；Accident Analysis； Complex Socio-Technical Systems； Quantitative Functional Resonance Analysis； Linguistic Z-Numbers； Site Percolation Model
摘要: 复杂社会技术系统事故通常并非由单一故障直接导致，而是多个功能在运行中产生偏差并相互作用、逐步放大的结果。针对传统功能共振分析方法在功能偏差量化、偏差传播刻画及专家评价可靠性考虑方面的不足，本文提出一种定量事故分析方法。该方法采用语言Z数量化功能输出的时间性与精确性变异，利用站点渗流模型计算变异传播强度，并通过耦合度模型识别功能共振强度。以加拿大143号航班事故为例，选取燃油系统加油过程中的8个关键功能，结合3名专家评价数据。结果表明，信号处理设备与燃油量显示之间的功能共振是事故形成的关键环节，维护、告知、加油和飞行员检查等功能也存在较高风险。与已有改进FRAM结果相比，该方法能够识别相近的关键风险环节，并进一步发现潜在风险点，可为复杂社会技术系统事故分析与风险防控提供参考。灵敏度分析表明，在三角隶属函数支撑区间按±10%扰动以及共振阈值在0.43~0.47范围内变化时，功能变异排序和核心高风险链条基本保持稳定。
Abstract: Accidents in complex socio-technical systems are usually not directly caused by a single failure, but result from deviations in multiple functions during system operation, which interact with each other and are progressively amplified. To address the limitations of the traditional Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) in quantifying functional variability, characterizing variability propagation, and considering the reliability of expert evaluations, this paper proposes a quantitative accident analysis method. In this method, linguistic Z-numbers are used to quantify the variability in the timeliness and accuracy of functional outputs; the site percolation model is employed to calculate the propagation intensity of variability; and the coupling degree model is introduced to identify the strength of functional resonance. Taking the Air Canada Flight 143 accident as a case study, eight key functions in the refueling process of the fuel system are selected and analyzed based on evaluation data from three experts. The results show that the functional resonance between signal processing equipment and fuel quantity indication was a critical link in the formation of the accident, while functions such as maintenance, notification, refueling, and pilot inspection also exhibited relatively high risks. Compared with existing improved FRAM results, the proposed method can identify similar key risk links and further reveal potential risk points, thereby providing a reference for accident analysis and risk prevention and control in complex socio-technical systems. The sensitivity analysis shows that the ranking of functional variability and the core high-risk links remain stable when the support intervals of the triangular membership functions are perturbed by ±10% and the resonance threshold varies from 0.43 to 0.47.
文章引用：王宇莹, 黄文成. 复杂社会技术系统事故的定量功能共振分析[J]. 交通技术, 2026, 15(5): 701-712. https://doi.org/10.12677/ojtt.2026.155060

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