气候变化背景下城市灾害韧性结构特征研究

Study on the Structural Characteristics of Urban Disaster Resilience in the Context of Climate Change

摘要: 气候变化背景下，极端天气事件频发使城市面临的灾害风险日趋复杂，提升城市灾害韧性成为增强城市安全治理能力的重要途径。本文以广东省21个地级市为研究对象，从一般韧性与灾害调适韧性两个维度构建城市灾害韧性评价体系，运用探索性因子分析识别城市灾害韧性的内部结构及其差异。研究发现：一般韧性构成城市灾害韧性的基础支撑，灾害调适韧性发挥风险防控与调节保障作用；经济与数字化发展水平是影响城市灾害韧性的主要因素；不同城市在韧性形成路径上存在明显差异，经济发展基础较强的城市主要依托经济与数字化能力形成韧性优势，部分经济基础相对薄弱的城市则更多依赖资源禀赋、基础设施和治理能力形成支撑。研究结果表明，城市灾害韧性建设应从单一灾害防御转向经济、社会、生态、基础设施与治理能力综合提升，并结合城市发展基础实施差异化韧性建设策略。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of climate change, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events has made urban disaster risks increasingly complex, making urban disaster resilience essential for strengthening urban safety governance. Taking 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province as the research objects, this study develops an urban disaster resilience evaluation system based on general resilience and disaster-adaptation resilience, and employs exploratory factor analysis to identify its internal structure and differences. The results show that general resilience provides the foundation for urban disaster resilience, while disaster-adaptation resilience plays a supporting role in risk prevention and adjustment. Economic and digital development is the primary factor influencing urban disaster resilience. Cities also exhibit distinct pathways of resilience formation: economically stronger cities mainly rely on economic and digital capabilities, whereas some cities with weaker economic foundations rely more on resource endowments, infrastructure, and governance capacity. These findings suggest that urban disaster resilience should shift from single-hazard defense toward coordinated improvements in economic, social, ecological, infrastructural, and governance capacities, with differentiated strategies tailored to local conditions.