贸易政策不确定性对中国自动数据处理设备出口的影响研究——基于双重差分法的实证分析

The Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty on China’s Exports of Automatic Data Processing Equipment—An Empirical Analysis Based on the Difference-in-Differences Method

摘要: 在全球产业链重构的背景下，本文以2015~2025年月度数据为样本，采用双重差分法(DID)系统考察美国贸易政策不确定性(TPU)对中国自动数据处理设备(ADP)出口的冲击。研究创新性地聚焦ADP细分产品，构建“预期调整–冲击兑现”两阶段分析框架，并选取德、日作为对照组有效分离政策特异性效应。研究发现：第一，美国TPU显著抑制中国对美ADP出口，降幅达59.52%，该结论经多重稳健性检验依然可靠；第二，政策冲击呈非线性动态特征，市场在预期调整期已出现7.67%的提前下降，冲击兑现期降幅进一步扩大，证实了显著的前瞻性预期效应；第三，TPU冲击主要引发出口市场转移而非总量收缩。本文为理解TPU对高科技产品贸易的传导机制提供了新视角，对优化出口结构、完善风险预警机制具有重要政策启示。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of global supply chain restructuring, this paper utilizes monthly data from 2015 to 2025 and employs the Difference-in-Differences (DID) method to systematically investigate the impact of U.S. trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on China’s exports of automatic data processing (ADP) equipment. Innovatively focusing on disaggregated ADP products, this study constructs a two-stage analytical framework comprising “expectation adjustment” and “shock realization,” and selects Germany and Japan as a control group to effectively isolate policy-specific effects. The findings reveal that: First, U.S. TPU significantly reduces China’s ADP exports to the U.S. by 59.52%, a conclusion that remains robust across multiple robustness checks. Second, the policy shock exhibits non-linear dynamic characteristics. The market experienced a pre-emptive decline of 7.67% during the expectation adjustment stage, and the decline further deepened during the shock realization stage, confirming a significant forward-looking expectation effect. Third, the TPU shock primarily triggers export market diversion rather than an aggregate contraction in export volume. This paper provides a novel perspective for understanding the transmission mechanism of TPU on high-tech product trade, offering important policy implications for optimizing export structures and enhancing risk early-warning mechanisms.