政策周期视角下三孩政策的舆情演化研究

A Study on the Evolution of Public Opinion on the Three-Child Policy from the Perspective of the Policy Cycle

摘要: 为探究三孩政策不同政策周期中公众网络舆情的演化特征，文章以2020~2025年新浪微博主流媒体相关博文评论为研究对象，依据政策周期理论划分议程设置、政策实施初期和政策调整与评估三个阶段，运用网络爬虫技术和自然语言处理(NLP)情感分析技术对4224条有效评论进行情感分析，并对舆情内容进行阶段性比较。结果显示：公众情感总体呈现由消极情绪主导到中性情绪与消极情绪并存再到中性主导的阶段性特征。网络舆情的阶段性变化与政策信息逐步明确、公众关注重点转变以及生育相关现实约束持续存在等因素密切相关。基于此，建议应以公众需求为导向优化政策工具组合，完善生育支持和公共服务体系，降低家庭与企业相关成本，提升政策执行效能，营造更加友好的生育环境。

Abstract: To investigate the evolutionary characteristics of online public opinion across different policy cycles of the three-child policy, this study examines comments on relevant posts published by mainstream media on Sina Weibo from 2020 to 2025. Drawing on policy cycle theory, the study divides the policy process into three stages: agenda setting, the early stage of policy implementation, and policy adjustment and evaluation. Using web crawling techniques and natural language processing (NLP)-based sentiment analysis, 4224 valid comments were collected and analyzed to identify the emotional characteristics of public opinion and compare the content of online public opinion across different stages. The results show that public sentiment exhibits distinct stage-specific patterns, shifting from predominantly negative emotions to a coexistence of neutral and negative emotions, and ultimately to a predominantly neutral emotional orientation. The stage-based changes in online public opinion are closely associated with the gradual clarification of policy information, shifts in public attention, and the persistence of real-world constraints related to fertility. Based on these findings, policymakers should optimize the combination of policy instruments with public needs as the guiding principle, improve the fertility support and public service systems, reduce the costs associated with childbearing for households and enterprises, and enhance the effectiveness of policy implementation. These measures can help foster a more supportive and family-friendly environment for childbearing.