滇西北机场降水及气温的变化特征与季风的关系分析

Analysis of the Relationship between the Variation Characteristics of Precipitation and Temperature and Monsoon in Northwest Yunnan Airport

摘要: 利用2007~2022年滇西北丽江机场气温和降水数据，采用线性倾向率法、小波分析、Mann-Kendall检验等方法，研究滇西北机场降水及气温的变化特征与季风的关系。结果表明：(1) 滇西北机场年降水量整体上呈增加趋势，降水日数最多的月份是7月。年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温和极端最低气温均呈明显的增加趋势。(2) 气温和降水存在在大时间尺度上均存在10个月变化周期。(3) 年平均气温在2008年、2015年、2019年、和2020年发生突变，降水量在2016年及2019年发生突变。(4) 夏季风I_sw与气温、降水量相关性较好，I_sw对丽江机场气温的影响是不连续性的，有时候是正相关而有时则为负相关。而由夏季平均指数可看出夏季风I_sw与气温、降水量呈正相关，即夏季风越强，气温越高，同时降水量越多。气温、降水量与冬季风强度具有显著的相关性。I_N与气温、降水量是明显的负相关关系，冬季风增强，气温及降水量则随之减少。

Abstract: The air temperature and precipitation data of Lijiang Airport in northwest Yunnan from 2007 to 2022 were used, using linear trend rate method, wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall test and other methods, the relationship between the variation characteristics of precipitation and temperature and monsoon in northwest Yunnan airport was studied. The results show that: (1) The annual precipitation in northwest Yunnan airport showed an increasing trend on the whole, and the month with the most precipitation days was July. The annual mean maximum temperature, annual mean minimum temperature and extreme minimum temperature all showed an increasing trend. (2) Both temperature and precipitation have a 10-month cycle on a large time scale. (3) The annual mean temperature changes in 2008, 2015, 2019, and 2020, and the precipitation changes in 2016 and 2019. (4) Summer monsoon I_sw has a good correlation with temperature and precipitation. The effect of I_sw on temperature at Lijiang Airport is not continuous; sometimes it’s positive, other times negative. But looking at the summer average index, the summer monsoon I_sw is positively correlated with both temperature and precipitation, meaning the stronger the summer monsoon, the higher the temperature and the more precipitation. Temperature and precipitation are significantly correlated with winter monsoon intensity. I_N is obviously negatively correlated with temperature and precipitation—when the winter monsoon gets stronger, temperature and precipitation decrease accordingly.