绿色金融助推农业新质生产力发展的机制与效应分析

Mechanism and Effect Analysis of Green Finance Boosted Development of Agricultural New-Quality Productivity

摘要: 农业新质生产力是建设农业强国、推进乡村全面振兴的核心支撑，绿色金融能够通过资源配置、风险分担与市场激励功能破解农业绿色发展融资约束，是培育农业新质生产力的重要金融抓手。本文选取2013~2023年我国31个省级行政区面板数据，构建农业新质生产力综合指标体系并采用熵值法测算，运用双向固定效应模型，系统考察绿色金融对农业新质生产力的影响效应。研究结果表明：绿色金融对农业新质生产力存在显著、稳健的正向促进作用；绿色技术创新在二者间发挥显著中介效应。绿色金融的赋能效果存在明显区域异质性，西部地区正向作用在1%水平显著，东、中部地区促进效应未通过显著性检验；其次，分维度异质性检验显示，绿色金融对畜牧水产主导型、非粮食主产区省份农业新质生产力的提升效果更为突出。绿色金融对农业新质生产力的驱动存在单一门槛效应，门槛值为0.3260，绿色金融发展水平低于门槛值时拉动效应更强，跨越门槛后边际促进作用逐步弱化。据此，本文提出完善农业绿色金融精准供给体系、实施区域差异化金融扶持政策、分层推进绿色金融提质增效等对策建议，为依托绿色金融赋能农业新质生产力、加快农业强国建设提供经验依据与政策参考。

Abstract: Agricultural new-quality productivity serves as core support for building an agricultural powerhouse and advancing comprehensive rural revitalization. By fulfilling functions of resource allocation, risk sharing and market incentives, green finance alleviates financing constraints against agricultural green development, and acts as a vital financial instrument to foster agricultural new-quality productivity. Based on panel data of China’s 31 provinciallevel administrative regions from 2013 to 2023, this paper constructs a comprehensive indicator system for agricultural new-quality productivity and calculates its index with the entropy value method. A two-way fixed effect model is adopted to systematically explore the impact of green finance on agricultural newquality productivity. The empirical results demonstrate that green finance exerts a remarkably stable positive effect on agricultural new-quality productivity, and green technology innovation plays a prominent mediating role between the two variables. Its empowering effect presents evident regional heterogeneity: the positive influence is significant at the 1% level in western China, whereas such promoting effect fails the significance test in eastern and central regions. Tests of dimensional based heterogeneity further reveal that green finance delivers a more pronounced improvement in provinces dominated by animal husbandry and aquaculture as well as non-major grain-producing areas. Besides, green finance affects agricultural new-quality productivity via a single threshold effect with a threshold value of 0.3260. The driving impact is stronger when green finance development stays below this threshold and its marginal contribution gradually weakens after crossing the threshold. Accordingly, this paper puts forward policy proposals including optimizing the targeted supply system of agricultural oriented green finance, implementing region differentiated financial support policies and improving greenfinance quality by levels. It provides empirical evidence and policy references for empowering agricultural new-quality productivity and accelerating the construction of an agricultural powerhouse via green finance development.