跨境电商政策对经济高质量发展的影响研究——基于城市层面的经验证据

Research on the Impact of Cross-Border E-Commerce Policies on High-Quality Economic Development—Based on Empirical Evidence from Chinese Cities

摘要: 跨境电商作为贸易的新型业态，对促进我国国内国际双循环，推动经济高质量发展具有重要作用。本文以中国跨境电商综合试验区的设立构建准自然实验，基于2010~2023年全国288个地级市的面板数据，采用多时点双重差分模型，系统考察跨境电商综试区政策对经济高质量发展的影响及内在机制。研究结果表明：跨境电商综试区政策显著提升了经济高质量发展水平，且该结论经平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验和稳健性检验后依然成立；跨境电商综试区政策能够通过产业结构升级和对外开放水平推动经济高质量发展；跨境电商综试区政策对产业结构合理、市场机制健全城市经济高质量发展水平的提升效果更积极。本文为进一步完善跨境电商综试区政策体系，推动城市经济高质量发展提供了参考依据。

Abstract: Cross-border e-commerce, as a new form of trade, plays an important role in promoting China’s dual circulation of domestic and international markets and driving high-quality economic development. This paper constructs a quasi-natural experiment based on the establishment of China’s Cross-border E-commerce Comprehensive Pilot Zones. Using panel data from 288 cities across China from 2010 to 2023, we employ a staggered difference-in-differences model to systematically examine the impact of CBEC Pilot Zone policies on high-quality economic development and its underlying mechanisms. The findings indicate that: the CBEC Pilot Zone policy significantly enhances the level of high-quality economic development, and this conclusion remains robust after parallel trend tests, placebo tests, and other robustness checks; the policy promotes high-quality economic development through industrial structure upgrading and the expansion of openness to the outside world; and the positive effect of the CBEC Pilot Zone policy is more pronounced in cities with a rational industrial structure and sound market mechanisms. This study provides a reference for better leveraging CBEC Pilot Zone policies to promote high-quality economic development.