房价波动对中低收入群体家庭财务脆弱性的影响

The Impact of Housing Price Fluctuations on the Financial Vulnerability of Low- and Middle-Income Households

摘要: 基于2021年中国家庭金融调查数据，本文考察房价波动对中低收入家庭财务脆弱性的影响机制与异质性特征。基准回归结果表明，房价上涨短期能够降低中低收入家庭财务脆弱性；机制分析揭示，房价上涨同时存在两种对抗性效应：一方面通过推高居民乐观房价预期，诱发非理性购房行为，加剧家庭财务脆弱性；另一方面通过提升家庭流动性资产规模，缓解财务脆弱压力。异质性分析表明，部分大城市家庭以及中青年家庭面对房价波动时财务反应更为敏感。研究警示，房价上涨带来的账面财富效应容易掩盖家庭杠杆放大与流动性不足的潜在风险。据此，政策需要从强化家庭流动性支持、实施住房市场差异化干预、引导居民理性预期三个维度构建家庭财务风险防控体系，提升居民部门财务稳健性。

Abstract: Based on the 2021 China Household Finance Survey data, this study examines the mechanism and heterogeneous characteristics through which housing price fluctuations affect the financial vulnerability of low- and middle-income households. The baseline regression results indicate that a rise in housing prices can reduce the financial vulnerability of low- and middle-income households in the short term; the mechanism analysis reveals that a rise in housing prices exerts two opposing effects: on one hand, it heightens residents’ optimistic expectations about housing prices, triggering irrational home-buying behavior and exacerbating household financial vulnerability; on the other hand, it increases the scale of household liquid assets, thereby alleviating the pressure of financial vulnerability. The heterogeneity analysis shows that households in certain large cities, as well as young and middle-aged households, exhibit greater sensitivity in their financial responses to housing price fluctuations. This study warns that the book value effect induced by rising housing prices can easily mask potential risks such as increased household leverage and insufficient liquidity. Accordingly, policymakers should establish a household financial risk prevention and control system across three dimensions—strengthening support for household liquidity, implementing differentiated interventions in the housing market, and guiding residents toward rational expectations—to enhance the financial resilience of the household sector.