世界自然遗产缓冲区养殖场风险评价与管控

Risk Assessment and Control of Livestock Farms in World Natural Heritage Buffer Zones

摘要: 世界自然遗产缓冲区内已建项目除直接环境威胁，还存在污染扩散风险。环境影响评价的距离设定忽略了高山环境下地表径流的影响。选取汶川县8家养殖场，运用3S技术构建风险评价体系，并根据项目特征识别潜在风险因子，引入汇水重叠度(HCI)等指标，计算养分流失潜力(NLP)与修正后的综合风险指数(CRI)。结果表明综合考虑HCI、坡度与植被等因素对风险评估具有一定修正价值。通过“源–径–汇”思路进行水文分析，量化已建项目污染扩散风险，同时对消纳地进行适宜性评价，从单一变量转向空间视角。

Abstract: In the buffer zones of World Natural Heritage sites, constructed projects pose not only direct environmental threats but also risks of pollution diffusion. The distance settings in environmental impact assessments ignore the effects of surface runoff in mountainous environments. Eight farms in Wenchuan County were selected to construct a risk assessment system using 3S technology. Potential risk factors were identified based on project characteristics, and indicators such as the Hydrological Convergence Index (HCI) were introduced to calculate Nutrient Loss Potential (NLP) and the modified Comprehensive Risk Index (CRI). The results indicate that comprehensively considering factors such as HCI, slope, and vegetation has a certain corrective value for risk assessment. Hydrological analysis following the “source-path-convergence” approach was conducted to quantify the pollution diffusion risk of existing projects, while suitability evaluation of disposal sites was performed, shifting from a single-variable perspective to a spatial perspective.