数字经济发展对城市经济增长的影响——基于287个地级市的实证研究

The Impact of Digital Economic Development on Urban Economic Growth—An Empirical Study Based on 287 Prefecture-Level Cities

摘要: 当前，数字经济正引领全球经济转型，成为推动经济高质量发展的新引擎，尤其对城市经济发展产生深远影响。本文以2011~2023年中国287个地级市的面板数据为研究样本，构建双向固定效应模型，系统考察数字经济发展对城市经济增长的影响。在此基础上，本文创新性地将产业结构作为核心中介变量，运用逐步回归法深入检验其传导作用，并进一步分析了数字经济影响效应的异质性，并对潜在的内生性问题进行了有效处理和多重稳健性检验。研究发现：第一，数字经济发展能够显著促进城市经济增长，该结论在多种稳健性检验和内生性处理后依然成立，表明数字经济是城市经济发展的强劲动力。第二，产业结构在数字经济影响城市经济增长过程中发挥了显著的中介作用，但其间接效应为负，揭示了数字经济对城市经济增长的“直接促进与间接抑制并存”的双重特征。第三，数字经济的促进效应存在异质性，对东部地区的城市作用更为显著。

Abstract: Currently, the digital economy is driving global economic transformation and has become a new engine for high-quality economic development, exerting a profound impact on urban economic development in particular. Using panel data from 287 prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2023 as the research sample, this paper constructs a two-way fixed-effects model to systematically examine the impact of digital economic development on urban economic growth. Building on this foundation, this paper innovatively treats industrial structure as a core mediating variable, employs stepwise regression to thoroughly examine its transmission mechanism, further analyzes the heterogeneity of the digital economy’s impact, and effectively addresses potential endogeneity issues through multiple robustness tests. The findings reveal the following: First, the development of the digital economy significantly promotes urban economic growth; this conclusion holds even after various robustness tests and endogeneity treatments, indicating that the digital economy is a powerful driver of urban economic development. Second, industrial structure plays a significant mediating role in the digital economy’s impact on urban economic growth, though its indirect effect is negative, revealing the dual nature of the digital economy’s influence on urban economic growth—namely, “direct promotion coexists with indirect suppression.” Third, the stimulatory effects of the digital economy vary across regions and are more pronounced in cities in the eastern region.