农村产业融合与养老服务协同发展的耦合协调度测度及驱动因素研究

Research on the Measurement of Coupling Coordination Degree and Driving Factors for the Collaborative Development of Rural Industrial Integration and Elderly Care Services

摘要: 在人口老龄化加速与乡村振兴纵深推进的双重背景下，农村产业融合与养老服务协同发展成为破解农村养老难题、激发乡村产业活力的重要路径。本文以农村产业融合系统与养老服务系统为研究对象，构建包含产业融合基础、融合广度与深度、融合效益以及养老服务供给、服务保障、服务需求的综合评价指标体系，运用熵权法确定指标权重，采用耦合协调度模型测度2015~2023年中国30个省级行政区农村产业融合与养老服务的耦合协调水平，并借助面板回归模型识别其驱动因素。研究结果表明：1) 研究期内全国农村产业融合与养老服务综合发展指数均呈稳步上升趋势，但养老服务系统发展水平整体滞后于产业融合系统；2) 两系统耦合协调度由0.423提升至0.587，整体由濒临失调阶段迈入勉强协调阶段，区域差异显著，东部地区协调水平明显高于中西部地区；3) 经济发展水平、政府财政支出、人口老龄化程度、森林资源禀赋、交通基础设施对耦合协调度具有显著正向影响，其中政府财政支出的驱动效应最强。本文从深化林业产业融合、完善养老服务供给、强化区域协同等方面提出政策建议。

Abstract: Against the dual backdrop of accelerating population aging and the in-depth advancement of rural revitalization, the coordinated development of rural industrial integration and elderly care services has become an important pathway to address rural elderly care challenges and stimulate rural industrial vitality. Taking the rural industrial integration system and the elderly care service system as research objects, this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system encompassing industrial integration foundation, integration breadth and depth, integration benefits, as well as elderly care service supply, service security, and service demand. The entropy weight method is employed to determine index weights, and the coupling coordination degree model is adopted to measure the coupling coordination level of rural industrial integration and elderly care services across 30 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2015 to 2023. Panel regression models are further utilized to identify the driving factors. The results indicate that: 1) During the study period, the comprehensive development indices of both rural industrial integration and elderly care services in China show a steady upward trend, but the development level of the elderly care service system generally lags behind the industrial integration system; 2) The coupling coordination degree of the two systems increases from 0.423 to 0.587, overall transitioning from the near-imbalance stage to the barely-coordinated stage, with significant regional disparities—the coordination level in the eastern region is markedly higher than that in the central and western regions; 3) Economic development level, government fiscal expenditure, population aging degree, forest resource endowment, and transportation infrastructure exert significant positive effects on the coupling coordination degree, among which government fiscal expenditure has the strongest driving effect. This paper proposes policy recommendations from the perspectives of deepening forestry industrial integration, improving elderly care service supply, and strengthening regional coordination.