电子商务领域技术组合演化与技术机会识别

The Evolution of Technology Combinations and Technological Opportunity Identification in E-Commerce

摘要: 在电子商务技术持续发展与多要素协同创新的背景下，技术创新逐渐表现为不同技术要素之间的组合与重组，如何从技术结构中识别潜在技术机会成为重要问题。基于此，文章以知识重组理论为基础，从技术组合视角对电子商务领域技术结构及其演化特征进行分析。在方法上，以专利数据为基础，利用IPC主组共现关系构建技术组合，并通过技术组合频次及阶段占比刻画其分布与变化特征。研究结果表明，技术组合呈现明显的偏态分布特征，多数组合处于分散状态，少量组合形成相对稳定的技术基础；同时，部分技术组合在近期阶段占比持续提升，反映其在技术结构中的相对重要性不断增强。进一步分析发现，商业数据处理与信息处理、智能计算等技术要素之间的组合关系表现出较强增长趋势。研究从技术结构角度揭示了电子商务领域技术演化的特征，并为潜在技术机会识别提供了数据支持。

Abstract: In the context of the continuous development of e-commerce technologies and multi-factor collaborative innovation, technological innovation increasingly manifests as the combination and recombination of diverse technological elements, making the identification of potential technological opportunities from technological structures a critical issue. Based on this, this study adopts knowledge recombination theory and analyzes the technological structure and its evolutionary characteristics in the field of E-commerce from the perspective of technology combinations. Methodologically, patent data are used to construct technology combinations based on co-occurrence relationships among IPC main groups, and their distribution and dynamic changes are characterized by frequency and stage-wise proportions. The results show that technology combinations exhibit a pronounced skewed distribution, with most combinations remaining in a dispersed state and a small number forming relatively stable technological foundations. Meanwhile, some combinations show a continuous increase in their proportions in recent periods, indicating their growing relative importance within the technological structure. Further analysis reveals that combinations between business data processing and technological elements such as information processing and intelligent computing demonstrate relatively strong growth trends. This study reveals the evolutionary characteristics of e-commerce technologies from a structural perspective and provides data support for the identification of potential technological opportunities.