我国居民消费支出的多维影响因素研究

A Study on the Multidimensional Influencing Factors of Household Consumption Expenditure in China

摘要: 在宏观经济运行过程中，居民可支配收入与消费支出之间的联动关系一直处于核心位置。消费作为拉动经济增长的重要引擎，要想突破当前的增长瓶颈，就必须系统梳理那些影响收入与消费的各类因素。本文采用的是2013~2024年我国31个省级面板数据，通过构建多元线性回归模型，将收入水平、收入来源结构、社会保障支出、利率变化以及城镇化程度等多个变量纳入分析，从而搭建起一个用于研究居民消费支出影响因素的分析框架。研究结果显示：居民的人均可支配收入仍然是决定消费支出最关键的因素，尤其是工资性收入，能为消费提供比较稳定的支撑；社会保障支出的增加，有助于明显降低居民出于预防性考虑而进行储蓄的动机，而利率的上升则会对当期消费产生抑制作用。基于这些实证结果，本文最后从优化收入分配结构、健全社会保障体系、促进数字经济与消费深度融合等角度提出相关建议，希望为扩大国内需求、推动消费提档升级以及构建双循环新发展格局提供数据支撑和决策参考。

Abstract: In the course of macroeconomic operation, the linkage between residents’ disposable income and consumption expenditure has always occupied a central position. As consumption is an important engine driving economic growth, to break through the current growth bottleneck, it is necessary to systematically sort out various factors that affect income and consumption. This paper adopts provincial panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2013 to 2024, and constructs a multiple linear regression model, incorporating variables such as income level, income source structure, social security expenditure, interest rate changes, and urbanization degree into the analysis, thereby building an analytical framework for studying the influencing factors of residents’ consumption expenditure. The research results show that residents’ per capita disposable income remains the most critical factor determining consumption expenditure, especially wage income, which can provide relatively stable support for consumption; the increase in social security expenditure helps to significantly reduce residents’ precautionary savings motivation, while the rise in interest rates will inhibit current consumption. Based on these empirical results, this paper finally puts forward relevant suggestions from the perspectives of optimizing income distribution structure, improving the social security system, and promoting the deep integration of digital economy and consumption, hoping to provide data support and decision-making reference for expanding domestic demand, promoting consumption upgrading, and building a new dual-circulation development pattern.