自然灾害与农业保险赔付率：基于政策转型期的实证检验

Natural Disasters and Agricultural Insurance Payout Ratio: An Empirical Test Based on the Policy Transition Period

摘要: 农业保险是分散农业自然灾害风险的核心制度安排，赔付率则直接反映灾害损失向保险赔付的转化效率。本文基于2015至2024年我国30个省级行政区面板数据，运用双向固定效应面板模型实证检验自然灾害程度对农业保险赔付率的主效应，并考察农业保险深度的调节效应，同时从政策实施阶段、粮食主产区视角开展异质性分析。研究发现：自然灾害程度会显著推高农业保险赔付率，该影响主要集中于灾害发生当期；农业保险深度并未发挥显著的调节作用；异质性结果显示，政策实施后，灾害对赔付率的正向冲击有所缓释，且相较于非粮食主产区，粮食主产区内自然灾害对赔付率的提升效应更强。据此，本文提出要强化农业防灾减灾基础设施建设，落实差异化区域农业保险政策，推动农业保险由事后补偿向灾前风险减量管理延伸，持续完善大灾风险分散机制，充分释放农业保险的风险管理效能。

Abstract: Agricultural insurance is a core institutional arrangement for dispersing the risks of agricultural natural disasters, and the payout ratio directly reflects the efficiency with which disaster losses are transformed into insurance payouts. Based on panel data from 30 provincial-level regions in China from 2015 to 2024, this paper employs a two-way fixed effects panel model to empirically examine the main effect of the degree of natural disasters on the agricultural insurance payout ratio, and investigates the moderating effect of agricultural insurance depth. It also conducts heterogeneity analyses from the perspectives of policy implementation stages and major grain-producing areas. The findings are as follows: the degree of natural disasters significantly raises the agricultural insurance payout ratio, and this effect is mainly concentrated in the current period when disasters occur; agricultural insurance depth does not play a significant moderating role; the heterogeneity results show that after the implementation of the high-quality development policy, the positive impact of disasters on the payout ratio has been somewhat mitigated, and compared with non-major grain-producing areas, the effect of natural disasters in raising the payout ratio is stronger in major grain-producing areas. Accordingly, this paper proposes strengthening the infrastructure for agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, implementing differentiated regional agricultural insurance policies, promoting the extension of agricultural insurance from post-disaster compensation to pre-disaster risk reduction management, continuously improving the catastrophe risk diversification mechanism, and fully releasing the risk management effectiveness of agricultural insurance.