电子商务进村与乡村振兴——基于产业升级与消费激活的双重视角

E-Commerce in Rural Areas and Rural Revitalization—A Dual Perspective of Industrial Upgrading and Consumption Activation

摘要: 文章以“电子商务进农村综合示范县”政策为准自然实验，基于2011~2024年县域面板数据，采用双重差分法检验了农村电商政策对乡村经济振兴的影响。研究发现，电子商务进村政策显著提升了县域乡村经济振兴水平，这一结论在经过平行趋势检验与安慰剂检验后依然成立。机制分析表明，政策通过推动第三产业增加值增长和带动社会消费品零售总额提升两条路径发挥作用，这两条路径分别对应了乡村振兴中“产业兴旺”与“生活富裕”的要求。异质性分析显示，政策效应在第一产业占比较高、人力资本储备较好的县域更为明显。研究为理解数字下乡政策如何赋能乡村经济振兴提供了来自县域层面的经验证据。

Abstract: This paper takes the “Comprehensive Demonstration County for E-commerce Entering Rural Areas” policy as a quasi-natural experiment. Based on county-level panel data from 2011 to 2024, it employs a difference-in-differences (DID) method to examine the impact of rural e-commerce policies on rural economic revitalization. The results show that the rural e-commerce policy significantly enhances the level of county-level rural economic revitalization, a finding that remains robust after parallel trend tests and placebo tests. Mechanism analysis reveals that the policy operates through two pathways: promoting the growth of tertiary industry value-added and driving up total retail sales of consumer goods, which correspond to the requirements of “thriving businesses” and “affluent lives” in rural revitalization, respectively. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the policy effects are more pronounced in counties with a higher share of primary industry and better human capital endowments. These findings provide county-level empirical evidence for understanding how digital rural policies empower rural economic revitalization.