城市轨道交通安全韧性管理工程研究进展与展望

Research Progress and Prospects of Safety Resilience Management Engineering for Urban Rail Transit Systems

摘要: 城市轨道交通系统作为典型的复杂社会技术系统，其运行安全受到基础设施状态、外部环境扰动、组织管理行为以及人员决策过程等多重因素影响，传统以风险识别和事故控制为核心的安全管理范式已难以满足不确定性环境下系统持续稳定运行的需求。为系统梳理城市轨道交通安全韧性领域的研究进展、理论演化与未来发展方向，本文对国内外相关研究成果进行综合评述。在辨析韧性概念由工程恢复能力向动态适应能力演进的基础上，明确城市轨道交通安全韧性的内涵，即系统通过抵抗、吸收、恢复与适应等能力，在风险扰动过程中维持关键功能并实现持续优化的能力。围绕现有研究成果，本文从城市轨道交通网络韧性、安全韧性评价以及安全韧性因素作用机理三个方面展开系统梳理。研究发现，城市轨道交通韧性研究已形成融合交通工程、安全科学与管理科学的交叉研究领域。其中，网络韧性研究较为成熟，主要基于复杂网络理论分析系统结构脆弱性，并围绕网络优化与恢复策略提升系统抗扰能力；安全韧性评价研究逐渐由单一风险分析转向多维能力评估，但现有研究仍较多围绕火灾、暴雨等特定灾害情景展开，评价体系存在灾种适应性不足和指标体系碎片化问题；安全韧性作用机理研究进一步关注因素之间的关联关系与演化过程，但对复杂系统中动态适应行为、组织学习机制以及多层级因素耦合作用的解释仍显不足。总体来看，现有研究在安全与韧性融合、宏观网络与微观运行要素协同以及动态治理机制构建方面仍存在深化空间。未来研究应进一步推动城市轨道交通安全管理由传统风险控制范式向动态韧性治理范式转变，加强对人员、组织与技术系统协同适应机制的研究，构建面向全过程、多尺度和动态演化的安全韧性理论体系，为城市轨道交通系统安全治理能力提升提供理论支撑。

Abstract: As a typical complex socio-technical system, the operational safety of urban rail transit systems is affected by multiple factors, including infrastructure conditions, external environmental disturbances, organizational management behaviors, and human decision-making processes. The traditional safety management paradigm, which primarily focuses on risk identification and accident prevention, is insufficient to meet the requirements for continuous and stable system operation under uncertain environments. To summarize the research progress, theoretical evolution, and future development trends in the field of urban rail transit safety resilience, relevant studies conducted both domestically and internationally were systematically reviewed. Based on an analysis of the evolution of resilience concepts from engineering resilience to dynamic adaptive capability, the connotation of urban rail transit safety resilience was clarified. It refers to the capability of a system to maintain critical functions and achieve continuous optimization during risk disturbances through resistance, absorption, recovery, and adaptation. Existing studies were systematically reviewed from three perspectives: urban rail transit network resilience, safety resilience assessment, and the mechanisms underlying safety resilience factors. The results indicate that urban rail transit resilience research has developed into an interdisciplinary field integrating transportation engineering, safety science, and management science. Network resilience research has achieved relatively mature development, mainly focusing on system structural vulnerability analysis based on complex network theory and improvement of disturbance resistance through network optimization and recovery strategies. Safety resilience assessment has gradually evolved from single-risk analysis toward multidimensional capability evaluation; however, existing studies remain mainly focused on specific disaster scenarios, such as fires and heavy rainfall events, resulting in insufficient adaptability across different disaster types and fragmented indicator systems. Research on safety resilience mechanisms has increasingly emphasized the interactions and evolutionary processes among influencing factors; nevertheless, the explanations of dynamic adaptive behaviors, organizational learning mechanisms, and multi-level factor coupling effects in complex systems remain inadequate. Overall, further improvements are still required in the integration of safety and resilience, the coordination between macro-level networks and micro-level operational elements, and the development of dynamic governance mechanisms. Future research should promote the transformation of urban rail transit safety management from a traditional risk-control paradigm toward a dynamic resilience-governance paradigm, strengthen investigations into the synergistic adaptation mechanisms among personnel, organizations, and technical systems, and establish a safety resilience theoretical framework characterized by whole-process, multi-scale, and dynamic evolution, thereby providing theoretical support for improving the safety governance capability of urban rail transit systems.