数字普惠金融对跨境电子商务发展水平的影响研究

The Impact of Digital Inclusive Finance on the Development Level of Cross‑Border E‑Commerce

摘要: 本文以2013~2023年我国30个省级面板数据为研究样本，采用熵值法测算跨境电子商务发展水平，结合北京大学数字普惠金融指数，实证检验数字普惠金融对跨境电子商务发展的影响效应、作用机制与非线性特征。研究发现：第一，基准回归结果表明，数字普惠金融对跨境电子商务发展水平存在显著的正向促进作用，该结论经内生性与稳健性检验后依然成立，且在东、中部地区的促进效应更为突出；第二，中介效应检验证实，数字普惠金融可通过缓解融资约束、提升贸易开放度两条路径，间接推动跨境电子商务发展；第三，门槛效应分析显示，以数字普惠金融自身为门槛变量，二者关系存在显著的单门槛特征，跨越门槛值后数字普惠金融的促进作用呈现边际递增的非线性特征。本文的研究为完善数字普惠金融体系、赋能跨境电商高质量发展提供了经验证据。

Abstract: Using panel data of 30 Chinese provinces (2013~2023) as the research sample, this paper measures the development level of cross-border e-commerce via the entropy method and in conjunction with the Peking University Digital Inclusive Finance Index to empirically examine the impact of digital inclusive finance on cross-border e-commerce development, its mechanism, and nonlinear characteristics. The results show that, first, the baseline regression results indicate that digital inclusive finance has a significant positive promoting effect on the development level of cross-border e-commerce, which is robust after endogeneity and robustness tests and is more pronounced in eastern and central regions. Second, mediation analysis confirms that digital inclusive finance can indirectly promote cross-border e-commerce development through two channels: easing financing constraints and enhancing trade openness. Third, threshold analysis reveals that, with digital inclusive finance itself as the threshold variable, the relationship between the two exhibits a significant single threshold effect: the promotional effect becomes marginally increasing once digital inclusive finance surpasses the threshold, exhibiting a nonlinear characteristic of increasing marginal returns. The findings offer empirical evidence for improving digital inclusive finance systems to empower high quality cross border e commerce development.