对我国城市收缩的认识与应对路径研究

Research on the Perceptions and Response Pathways of Urban Shrinkage in China

摘要: 我国城镇化现在正从高速发展走向稳态提质的阶段，人口外流、发展放缓、空间闲置等问题在多地显现，治理上较易遇到资源错配或发展焦虑问题。学术界对于“城市收缩”和“城市衰败”的边界尚无明确、充分的讨论，社会上也常有认识不清晰的现象，易简单将城市人口与规模缩减当作城市衰败的标志。本文立足减量发展视域，辨析城市收缩与城市衰败的本质差异。研究发现：城市收缩是资源枯竭、产业转型、人口流动与区域格局调整等因素带来的阶段性、规律性量变过程，而城市衰败是治理失效引发的系统性、内核性质变危机，二者在成因、表征与演化趋势上存在根本区别。基于精明收缩治理理念，文章探索适配我国城市收缩情境的科学化治理路径，以期为减量发展背景下城市实现提质转型提供理论参考与借鉴。

Abstract: China’s urbanization is shifting from high‑speed expansion toward a stage of steady‑state, quality‑oriented development. Issues such as population outflow, slowed growth and idle urban spaces have emerged across many regions, which may readily trigger governance‑related problems including resource misallocation and developmental anxiety. Academia has not yet carried out clear and sufficient discussions concerning the dividing line between “urban shrinkage” and “urban decline”. Conceptual ambiguity is prevalent in society, where a shrinking urban population and diminished city scale are frequently regarded as markers of urban decline. From the perspective of reduction‑oriented development, this paper differentiates the essential differences between urban shrinkage and urban decline. The findings reveal that urban shrinkage is a phased, regular quantitative process brought about by factors including resource depletion, industrial transformation, population mobility and the adjustment of regional patterns. By contrast, urban decline represents a systematic and intrinsic qualitative crisis stemming from governance failure. Fundamental differences exist between the two with respect to their causes, manifestations and evolutionary trends. Based on the governance philosophy of smart shrinkage, this paper explores scientific governance pathways suited to the context of urban shrinkage in China. It aims to provide theoretical reference and insights for cities to achieve quality‑enhancing transformation against the backdrop of reduction‑oriented development.