多源数据支持下的养老服务设施供需及优化研究——以南京市为例

Supply-Demand Analysis and Optimization of Elderly Care Service Facilities Supported by Multi-Source Data—A Case Study of Nanjing

摘要: 在人口老龄化持续加深背景下，城乡养老服务设施供给与老龄人口需求的空间适配关系直接影响养老服务资源的配置效率。本文以南京市街道为基本分析单元，综合利用官方养老机构名录、社区养老服务设施POI和WorldPop等多源数据，分析养老服务设施供给、老龄人口服务需求及二者之间的适配关系。研究发现，南京市养老服务设施供给和老龄人口需求呈现不同的空间分布特征，设施供给呈现“环主城集聚”格局，老龄人口需求呈现多中心分布特征。基于区位熵测度结果，本文将街道划分为相对适配型、供给不足型和供给富余型三类，其中相对适配型街道数量最多，供给不足型和供给富余型街道仍占一定比例。结果表明，南京市养老服务设施配置与老龄人口空间分布之间仍存在一定错位，后续应根据不同供需适配类型分类优化养老服务资源配置，推动养老服务设施从数量配置转向精准供给。

Abstract: Against the background of deepening population aging, the spatial fit between the supply of elderly care service facilities and the needs of the older population directly affects the efficiency of elderly care resource allocation. Taking subdistricts in Nanjing as the basic analytical units, this study integrates official lists of elderly care institutions, POI data on community-based elderly care facilities, and WorldPop population data to examine the supply of elderly care facilities, the service needs of the older population, and their supply-demand fit. The results show that elderly care facility supply and older population needs exhibit different spatial distribution patterns. Facility supply presents a pattern of concentration around the main urban area, while older population needs show a polycentric distribution. Based on the location quotient results, subdistricts are classified into three types: relatively matched, insufficient supply, and surplus supply. Among them, relatively matched subdistricts account for the largest share, while insufficient-supply and surplus-supply subdistricts still represent a certain proportion. The findings indicate that a spatial mismatch remains between elderly care facility allocation and the distribution of the older population in Nanjing. Future optimization should adopt differentiated strategies according to different supply-demand fit types, promoting a shift from quantity-oriented facility allocation to more precise service provision.