全面三孩政策下生育抚育成本测算探究——以西安市为例

Research on the Measurement of Fertility and Child-Rearing Costs under the Universal Three-Child Policy—A Case Study of Xi’an

摘要: 针对生育抚育成本太高使得“全面二孩”和“三孩”政策尚未带动生育率大幅提升的问题，运用LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory)预测模型以及汇总测算法，对陕西省西安市三孩的生育抚育成本进行研究。结果表明：从女性怀孕至抚养至12岁的直接成本为79.43~81.23万。以2021年的小时工资标准为基准，间接成本为75.34~79.53万元。依据测算结果，为制定具有中国特色的生育支持体系提出相关建议。

Abstract: Against the backdrop that excessively high fertility and child-rearing costs have prevented the Universal Two-child and Three-child Policies from driving a substantial rise in fertility rates, this paper adopts the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) forecasting model and the aggregate accounting method to measure the fertility and child-rearing costs of three children in Xi’an, Shaanxi Province. The results show that the direct costs from maternal pregnancy to raising children up to the age of 12 range from 794,300 yuan to 812,300 yuan. Based on the hourly wage standard of 2021, the indirect costs are between 753,400 yuan and 795,300 yuan. In light of the measurement findings, this paper puts forward targeted suggestions for establishing a fertility support system with Chinese characteristics.