中国新质生产力发展水平测度、区域差异及子系统协同演化研究

Measurement of the Development Level of China’s New Quality Productivity, Regional Differences, and Research on the Collaborative Evolution of Subsystems

摘要: 新质生产力是推动高质量发展的核心战略力量，科学测度其发展水平并揭示其区域差异与子系统协同特征具有重要的理论与现实意义。本文从经济新动能、科技创新、绿色低碳、改革开放、高水平人才五个维度构建了包含35个三级指标的评价体系，运用熵权-TOPSIS法测度2014~2023年中国30个省级行政区的新质生产力发展水平，并综合运用Dagum基尼系数分解与耦合协调度模型，分析了其区域差异来源与子系统协同水平。研究表明，全国新质生产力水平持续上升但区域差异扩大，呈“东部领先、中部追赶、西部与东北滞后”格局，子系统协同滞后于发展速度，且存在结构性区域分化，“绿色低碳–改革开放”协调度提升较慢，凸显绿色转型与制度供给的协同瓶颈。研究结果为各区域新质生产力协同发展策略的制定提供了理论和实证依据。

Abstract: New quality productivity is the core strategic force driving high-quality development. Scientifically measuring its development level and revealing its regional differences and subsystem synergy characteristics have important theoretical and practical significance. This article constructs an evaluation system consisting of 35 three-level indicators from five dimensions: new economic drivers, technological innovation, green and low-carbon, reform and opening up, and high-level talents. The entropy weight TOPSIS method is used to measure the development level of new quality productivity in 30 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2014 to 2023. The Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition and coupling coordination degree model are comprehensively used to analyze the sources of regional differences and the level of subsystem coordination. Research has shown that the level of new quality productivity in China continues to rise, but regional differences have widened, presenting a pattern of “leading in the east, catching up in the central region, and lagging behind in the west and northeast”. The coordination of subsystems lags behind the development speed, and there is structural regional differentiation. The coordination of “green low-carbon reform and opening up” has been slow to improve, highlighting the bottleneck of coordination between green transformation and institutional supply. The research results provide theoretical and empirical basis for the formulation of collaborative development strategies for new quality productivity in various regions.