基于Tapio模型的东北地区城镇污水处理碳排放与经济增长脱钩研究

Research on Decoupling of Carbon Emissions from Urban Sewage Treatment and Economic Growth in Northeast China Based on the Tapio Model

摘要: 城镇污水处理碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系对“双碳”目标下行业低碳转型具有重要意义。本文基于2010~2024年东北三省面板数据，采用排放因子法核算碳排放，运用Tapio模型分析脱钩状态，并结合环保督察、去产能等政策进行案例剖析。结果表明：碳排放总体呈“先增后稳”特征，辽宁最高；脱钩以弱脱钩、增长连接和扩张负脱钩为主，强脱钩仅出现于2017、2023和2024年，尚未形成稳定低碳格局。省际差异明显，辽宁表现较好，黑龙江扩张负脱钩最多且经济低增速年份仍碳排放正增长。案例显示，2017年辽宁、黑龙江强脱钩由环保督察与去产能叠加下的工业废水减量驱动，属外生冲击型；2023~2024年辽宁强脱钩则体现减污降碳与电网清洁化的内生效应。东北地区污水处理碳排放具有刚性，经济放缓难以自动减碳。未来应分省施策，推进节能改造、控制新增能力、研发寒冷地区低碳技术，推动碳排放与经济增长逐步脱钩。

Abstract: The decoupling relationship between carbon emissions from urban sewage treatment and economic growth holds significant importance for the low-carbon transformation of industries under the “dual carbon” goals. Based on panel data from 2010 to 2024 for the three northeastern provinces, this paper calculates carbon emissions using the emission factor method, analyzes the decoupling status using the Tapio model, and conducts case studies in conjunction with policies such as environmental protection inspections and overcapacity reduction. The results indicate that carbon emissions generally exhibit a “first increase and then stabilization” trend, with Liaoning having the highest emissions. The decoupling mainly consists of weak decoupling, growth connection, and expansionary negative decoupling, with strong decoupling only occurring in 2017, 2023, and 2024, indicating that a stable low-carbon pattern has not yet been established. There are significant inter-provincial differences, with Liaoning performing relatively well, while Heilongjiang experiences the most expansionary negative decoupling and still sees positive carbon emissions growth in years of low economic growth. Cases show that in 2017, the strong decoupling in Liaoning and Heilongjiang was driven by the reduction of industrial wastewater under the combined effects of environmental protection inspections and overcapacity reduction, with this strong decoupling being an exogenous shock type; in 2023~2024, Liaoning’s strong decoupling reflects the endogenous effects of pollution reduction, carbon reduction, and the shift toward a cleaner power grid. Carbon emissions from sewage treatment in Northeast China are rigid, making it difficult for carbon emissions to decline automatically as the economy slows down. In the future, policies should be implemented on a provincial basis to promote energy-saving renovations, control new capacity, develop low-carbon technologies for cold regions, and gradually decouple carbon emissions from economic growth.