数实融合对体育产业发展质量的非线性影响——基于2013~2024年省级面板数据的实证检验

The Nonlinear Impact of Digital-Real Economy Integration on the Development Quality of the Sports Industry—Empirical Test Based on Provincial Panel Data from 2013 to 2024

摘要: 本文基于2013~2024年中国30个省级行政区的观测值，采用熵权法和耦合协调度模型测度数字经济、实体经济与数实融合水平，并运用省份和年份双向固定效应模型检验数实融合对体育产业发展水平的非线性影响。结果显示：(1) 数实融合均值由2013年的0.4185升至2024年的0.5385，东部地区总体高于中部和西部；(2) 二次项模型中一次项显著为正、二次项显著为负，拐点为0.4962且位于样本区间内，表明数实融合与体育产业发展水平之间存在显著倒U型关系；(3) 滞后一期、缩尾处理和替换被解释变量形式的结果支持该结论，剔除直辖市后关系方向保持一致但显著性减弱；(4) 体育产业发展水平总体指数与数实融合之间存在明显空间差异，东部地区的数字能力和实体承载基础相对较强。研究据此提出，应从追求数字化覆盖转向提升数实适配度，通过强化实体承载、完善数据治理和实施区域差异化策略，增强数实融合推动体育产业发展质量的持续作用。

Abstract: This study is based on observations from 30 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2013 to 2024. It employs the entropy weighting method and the coupling coordination model to measure the levels of digital economy, real economy, and integration between digital and real sectors, and uses a two-way fixed effects model by province and year to examine the nonlinear impact of digital-real integration on the development level of the sports industry. The results show that: (1) the average level of digital-real integration increased from 0.4185 in 2013 to 0.5385 in 2024, with the eastern region generally higher than the central and western regions; (2) in the quadratic model, the coefficient of the linear term is significantly positive and that of the quadratic term is significantly negative, with a turning point of 0.4962 within the sample range, indicating a significant in-verted U-shaped relationship between digital-real integration and the development level of the sports industry; (3) results considering a one-period lag, tail reduction treatment, and alternative forms of the dependent variable support this conclusion, and after excluding municipalities directly under central government control, the direction of the relationship remains consistent, though significance is weakened; (4) there are significant spatial differences between the overall index of sports industry development and digital-real integration, with the eastern region showing relatively stronger digital capabilities and real economy foundations. Based on these findings, the study suggests shifting the focus from pursuing digital coverage to enhancing digital-real compatibility, and emphasizes strengthening the real economy foundation, improving data governance, and implementing regionally differentiated strategies to continuously enhance the role of digital-real integration in promoting the quality development of the sports industry.