基于多元统计分析的中国区域经济高质量发展水平评价研究

A Study on the Evaluation of China’s Regional High-Quality Economic Development Based on Multivariate Statistical Analysis

摘要: 本文基于创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享五个维度，构建包含多个一级指标和二级指标的区域高质量发展评价指标体系，并选取2021~2022年我国31个省级行政区的相关数据作为研究样本。首先对数据进行缺失值处理、异常值检测及标准化处理，在此基础上采用因子分析、主成分分析、多维尺度分析和典型相关分析等多元统计方法，对各地区高质量发展水平、结构差异及维度协同关系进行系统研究。研究结果表明：我国区域高质量发展存在明显的空间差异，东部沿海地区在创新能力、开放水平和综合竞争力方面总体具有优势，而中西部部分地区在绿色发展、城乡协调和共享发展等方面仍存在短板；因子分析提取出产业创新开放、民生共享、内需协调、创新协调及外资绿色约束等公共因子，能够较好反映区域高质量发展的结构特征；主成分分析结果显示广东、江苏、浙江、上海和北京等地区综合发展水平位居前列；多维尺度分析进一步揭示了不同省级行政区在发展结构上的相似性与差异性；典型相关分析表明创新、协调与绿色、开放、共享之间存在显著的整体协同关系。基于上述结果，本文提出针对不同发展模式的差异化政策建议，并从跨维度协同角度设计联动型政策工具，为区域高质量发展提供数据支撑。

Abstract: This paper constructs an evaluation indicator system for regional high-quality development with multiple primary and secondary indicators from five dimensions: innovation, coordination, green development, openness, and sharing. Relevant data of 31 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2021 to 2022 are selected as the research sample. Missing value imputation, outlier detection and standardization are conducted on the dataset. On this basis, multivariate statistical methods including factor analysis, principal component analysis, multidimensional scaling and canonical correlation analysis are adopted to systematically investigate the high-quality development level, structural disparities and dimensional synergies across regions. The results show that notable spatial disparities exist in regional high-quality development across China. The eastern coastal regions generally have advantages in innovation capacity, openness and comprehensive competitiveness, while some central and western regions still face weaknesses in green development, urban-rural coordination and shared development. Factor analysis extracts common factors such as industrial innovation and openness, people’s livelihood and sharing, domestic demand coordination, innovation coordination, and foreign capital and green constraints, which adequately capture the structural features of regional high-quality development. Principal component analysis indicates that Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Beijing rank at the top in terms of comprehensive development level. Multidimensional scaling further reveals the similarities and differences in development structure among provinces. Canonical correlation analysis verifies significant overall synergies between innovation-coordination and green development-openness-sharing. Drawing on these findings, this paper puts forward differentiated policy recommendations tailored to diverse development patterns and designs linked policy instruments from the perspective of cross-dimensional coordination, so as to provide empirical support for regional high-quality development.