中国数字普惠金融区域差异与影响因素研究——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

Research on Regional Differences and Influencing Factors of Digital Inclusive Finance in China—An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

摘要: 数字普惠金融在促进金融服务均等化的同时，仍然面临着区域发展不平衡的问题。本文基于2011~2023年中国省级的面板数据，将北京大学数字普惠金融指数作为核心的测度指标。首先，本文通过Dagum基尼系数分解法和Kernel核密度估计法，研究了中国数字普惠金融发展的区域差异、形成差异的原因和动态演变趋势；其次构建了固定效应模型，深入考察影响其发展的主要因素。研究发现：一是我国数字普惠金融发展水平稳步提升，全国总体差异逐年递减，区域间存在差异，具体表现为“东部领先、中部和西部次之、东北相对滞后”的阶梯式分布，且区域间差异是构成总体差异的主要来源；二是互联网发展水平、城乡收入差距与人口密度对数字普惠金融发展具有积极影响。为进一步地推动数字普惠金融的区域协调发展，本文基于上述的研究结果提出实施差异化区域政策、加强数字基础设施建设、提升居民的数字金融素养等建议。

Abstract: While promoting the equalization of financial services, digital inclusive finance still faces the problem of uneven regional development. Based on the panel data of Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2023, the core measurement index is the Peking University Digital Inclusive Finance Index. Firstly, this paper applies Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method and Kernel density estimation method to study the regional differences, causes and dynamic evolution trend of China’s digital inclusive financial development. Secondly, a fixed effect model is constructed to examine the main factors affecting its development. Main findings: Firstly, the development level of digital inclusive finance in China has been steadily improving, with overall national disparities decreasing year by year. There are regional differences, specifically manifested as a tiered distribution of “the east leading, the central and western regions following, and the northeast lagging behind relatively”. Moreover, inter-regional differences are the main source of overall disparities. Secondly, the level of internet development, urban-rural income disparity, and population density have a positive impact on the development of digital inclusive finance. To further promote the coordinated development of digital inclusive finance across regions, this paper proposes suggestions based on the aforementioned research results, including implementing differentiated regional policies, strengthening digital infrastructure construction, and enhancing residents’ digital financial literacy.