制造业数字技术创新对碳排放的产业关联溢出效应研究

Research on the Industrial Linkage Spillover Effects of Digital Technology Innovation in Manufacturing on Carbon Emissions

摘要: 本文用中国制造业30个行业近十年的面板数据，构建数字技术创新综合评价指标体系与碳排放效率测度框架，综合运用熵值法、碳排放系数法及空间杜宾模型，从上下游产业的视角出发，系统探究制造业产业间的溢出效应。研究发现：在样本考察期内，数字技术创新会明显抑制本行业的碳排放效率，主要原因在于新技术应用初期的能耗回弹效应及中小企业技术吸收能力不足；然而，间接溢出效应的分解结果显示，行业间存在正向空间溢出影响，绿色技术创新通过产业链传导能够有效降低关联行业的碳排放水平。异质性分析进一步发现，数字技术创新的高水平行业在前向和后向两个方向上均表现出显著的溢出效应，而中等水平行业则只对下游环节产生溢出作用，低水平行业则未表现出显著的产业链溢出能力。

Abstract: Based on panel data from 30 manufacturing industries in China over the past decade, this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system for digital technology innovation and a measurement framework for carbon emission efficiency. By comprehensively applying the entropy method, the carbon emission coefficient method, and the spatial Durbin model, it systematically explores the spillover effects among manufacturing industries from the perspective of upstream and downstream industries. The findings are as follows: during the sample observation period, digital technology innovation significantly inhibits the carbon emission efficiency of the industry itself, mainly due to the energy rebound effect in the early stage of new technology application and the insufficient technology absorption capacity of small and medium-sized enterprises. However, the decomposition results of indirect spillover effects show that there is a positive spatial spillover effect among industries, and green technology innovation can effectively reduce the carbon emission levels of related industries through industrial chain transmission. Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that industries with a high level of digital technology innovation exhibit significant spillover effects in both forward and backward directions, while industries with a medium level only generate spillover effects on downstream segments, and industries with a low level show no significant industrial chain spillover capacity.