人口老龄化对我国省域经济增长的组态路径研究

A Study on the Configurational Pathways of Population Aging on Provincial Economic Growth in China

摘要: 在我国人口老龄化加深背景下，区域经济增长呈现明显分化。本文将TOE理论引入人口结构因素，采用fs-QCA方法考察老龄化背景下省域经济增长的组态路径。基于我国31个省级行政区2024年数据，研究发现：(1) 高人均GDP增长率并非由单一因素驱动，而是多因素协同作用的结果；(2) 技术创新在不同组态中均发挥核心作用，是缓解老龄化压力的重要驱动力；(3) 区域增长存在差异化路径，研发投入与城镇化协同是典型模式，人力资本和老龄化作用具有情境依赖性。研究从组态视角拓展了人口老龄化与经济增长关系研究，为区域适应人口结构变化和制定差异化发展政策提供参考。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of deepening population aging in China, regional economic growth has shown increasing disparities. This study integrates demographic factors into the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) framework and uses fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fs-QCA) to identify configurational pathways of provincial economic growth. Based on data from 31 Chinese provinces in 2024, the results show that: (1) high per capital GDP growth results from the synergy of multiple conditions rather than a single factor; (2) technological innovation consistently acts as a core condition across configurations and helps alleviate aging pressures; (3) regional growth follows differentiated pathways, with R&D investment-urbanization synergy as a typical pattern, while human capital and aging effects are context-dependent. From a configurational perspective, this study extends research on the relationship between population aging and economic growth and provides a reference for regions to adapt to demographic structural changes and formulate differentiated development policies.