农村人口老龄化对区域土地流转行为的影响

The Impact of Rural Population Aging on Regional Land Transfer Behavior

摘要: 农村人口老龄化是我国乡村社会转型中最突出的结构性特征之一，深刻影响着农地要素的配置格局。本文利用2010~2023年全国省级宏观面板数据，采用双向固定效应模型，系统实证农村人口老龄化对区域土地流转水平的基准影响、城镇化调节效应与人力资本异质性。研究发现：农村老龄化显著正向提升区域土地流转水平；城镇化在二者间存在显著正向调节作用；该促进效应仅存在农村低人力资本区域。本文结合人口社会学与农业要素配置理论，弥补现有研究割裂人口结构与农地市场的局限，为依托人口高质量发展推进差异化乡村土地治理提供实证支撑。

Abstract: Rural population aging is one of the most prominent structural features of China’s rural social trans-formation, and it profoundly shapes the allocation of farmland. Drawing on provincial-level panel data from 2010 to 2023, this paper applies a two-way fixed-effects model to examine the baseline effect of rural population aging on regional land transfer, the moderating role of urbanization, and heterogeneity across human capital levels. The results show that rural aging significantly raises the level of regional land transfer; urbanization exerts a significant positive moderating effect on this relationship; and the promoting effect is observed only in regions with low rural human capital. By integrating population sociology with agricultural factor allocation theory, this paper addresses the gap in existing re-search that treats demographic structure and the farmland market in isolation, and offers empirical support for differentiated rural land governance anchored in high-quality population development.