长三角与珠三角城市群建筑隐含碳排放时空分异特征分析

Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Building Embodied Carbon Emissions in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta

摘要: 在快速城镇化与“双碳”目标双重背景下，建筑隐含碳排放已成为城市群低碳转型的重要议题。基于2003~2020年长三角和珠三角城市群建筑隐含碳排放数据，采用全局与局部莫兰指数分析其时空格局。结果表明：两大城市群建筑隐含碳排放总量持续上升，呈显著“核心–外围”格局，高排放集中于上海、苏南、杭州湾、合肥及广州、深圳、东莞，并逐步向外围扩散。全局莫兰指数均为正且显著，由2003年0.357波动升至2006~2007年峰值0.362，后降至2020年0.295，空间集中度减弱但正自相关仍存。LISA以H-H和L-L集聚为主，2003年合计占75%，2020年占72%；上海、佛山持续H-H集聚，安徽外围多为L-L集聚。研究建议推进跨城市区域协作与差异化低碳治理。

Abstract: Under the dual context of rapid urbanization and the “dual carbon” goals, building embodied carbon emissions have become an important issue in the low-carbon transition of urban agglomerations. Based on building embodied carbon emission data from the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta from 2003 to 2020, this study analyzes their spatiotemporal patterns using global and local Moran’s I. The results show that total building embodied carbon emissions in both urban agglomerations continued to rise, exhibiting a pronounced core-periphery pattern. High emissions were concentrated in Shanghai, southern Jiangsu, Hangzhou Bay, Hefei, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Dongguan, and gradually spread toward peripheral areas. Global Moran’s I values were positive and significant, fluctuating upward from 0.357 in 2003 to a peak of 0.362 in 2006~2007, and then declining to 0.295 in 2020. Spatial concentration weakened, but positive spatial autocorrelation persisted. LISA results were dominated by high-high (H-H) and low-low (L-L) clusters, which together accounted for 75% in 2003 and 72% in 2020. Shanghai and Foshan consistently showed H-H clustering, while the peripheral areas of Anhui mostly showed L-L clustering. The study recommends promoting cross-city regional collaboration and differentiated low-carbon governance.