人口老龄化背景下养老预付费风险的生成机理与治理路径

Formation Mechanism and Governance Paths of Prepayment Risks in Elderly Care under the Background of Population Aging

摘要: 在深度老龄化持续推进的时代背景下，预付费模式成为我国社会化养老主流运营模式。该模式一方面能够缓解民办养老机构重资产运营的资金周转压力，保障机构平稳运营；另一方面可帮助老年人提前锁定长期照料服务，兼顾养老服务供需双方现实诉求。但在社会结构转型、行业监管缺位、老年群体结构性脆弱三重因素叠加之下，养老预付费风险集中暴露，资金挪用、服务缩水、退费困难、非法集资及机构跑路等问题频发，既侵害老年人财产与养老服务权益，也易诱发基层群体性矛盾，阻碍养老服务行业高质量规范化发展。本文依托风险社会、社会脆弱性、协同治理三大社会学理论，从宏观、中观、微观三维度剖析养老预付费风险生成机理，弥补现有法学、金融学单一视角研究的不足。研究发现，刚性养老需求扩张、老年群体风险抵御能力薄弱、养老资本逐利异化、跨部门监管碎片化、行业法治供给滞后是风险滋生的核心原因。对此，本文立足多元共治理念，构建全链条闭环治理体系，依托差异化准入机制平衡严监管与普惠床位供给的冲突，从个体赋能、行业管控、协同监管、法治兜底、纠纷化解五大路径完善治理方案，兼顾城乡养老场景差异化治理需求，以期净化养老服务市场，保障老年群体合法权益，完善本土老龄社会治理体系。

Abstract: Against the background of deepening population aging, the prepayment mode has become the mainstream operation mode of social elderly care services in China. On the one hand, this mode can ease the capital turnover pressure of private elderly care institutions with heavy-asset operation and ensure their stable operation. On the other hand, it helps the elderly lock in long-term care services in advance, meeting the practical demands of both suppliers and demanders of elderly care services. However, under the combined effects of social structural transformation, inadequate industry supervision and structural vulnerability of the elderly, various risks of elderly care prepayment have been fully exposed, including fund misappropriation, service degradation, difficult refund, illegal fund-raising and institutional runaway. These problems not only infringe upon the property rights and elderly care service rights of the elderly, but also trigger mass contradictions at the grassroots level and hinder the standardized and high-quality development of the elderly care industry. Based on three sociological theories including risk society theory, social vulnerability theory and collaborative governance theory, this paper adopts civil affairs rectification data, from macro, meso and micro dimensions, making up for the deficiencies of existing researches from single perspectives of law and finance. The study finds that expanding rigid demand for elderly care, poor risk resistance of the elderly, profit-driven alienation of elderly care capital, fragmented cross-departmental supervision and lagging legal supply are the core causes of relevant risks. Accordingly, this paper constructs a full-chain closed-loop governance system based on the concept of diversified co-governance, balances strict supervision and inclusive bed supply through differentiated access mechanism, and puts forward governance paths from individual empowerment, industrial control, collaborative supervision, legal guarantee and dispute resolution. It also takes differentiated demands of urban and rural elderly care scenarios into consideration, aiming to standardize the elderly care service market, protect the legitimate rights and interests of the elderly, and improve the localized governance system responding to population aging.