家庭结构变迁视域下传统养老模式的解构与重构研究

Research on the Deconstruction and Reconstruction of Traditional Elderly Support Modes from the Perspective of Family Structure Transition

摘要: 城镇化、低生育率与跨区域人口流动推动我国家庭结构现代化转型，传统多代共居大家庭逐步被小型化、空巢化、独居化家庭替代，依托子代赡养的传统家庭养老遭遇系统性冲击。传统“养儿防老”模式的空间载体、人力供给、经济支撑与孝道伦理持续弱化，难以匹配深度老龄化下专业化养老需求。本文以福利三角理论为核心分析框架，以家庭结构变迁为主线，分阶段梳理1949年以来我国家庭形态的阶段性演化特征，从养老载体、经济基础、伦理基础、需求结构四大维度系统剖析传统养老模式解构的内在机理。研究基于国家历次人口普查、民政部老龄事业统计公报等一手官方数据，结合城乡养老发展现实，构建家庭、社区、机构、市场协同联动，辅以现代孝道文化赋能的复合型养老重构路径。研究旨在完善新时代多元协同养老体系建设逻辑，为优化老龄公共政策、推进积极应对老龄化国家战略落地提供理论支撑与现实参考。

Abstract: Driven by urbanization, low fertility rates, and cross-regional population mobility, the family structure in China has undergone modern transformative changes. The traditional extended multi-generational co-residential families are gradually being replaced by smaller, empty-nest, and single-person households, which has brought systematic impacts on the traditional family pension model relying on children’s support. The traditional “raising children for old age” model has witnessed a continuous weakening in its spatial carrier, labor supply, economic support, and filial piety ethics, making it unable to meet the professional elderly care demands amid deep population aging. Taking the welfare triangle theory as the core analytical framework and the changes in family structure as the main thread, this paper sorts out the phased evolutionary characteristics of Chinese family forms since 1949, and systematically analyzes the internal mechanism of the deconstruction of the traditional pension model from four dimensions, namely pension carrier, economic foundation, ethical foundation, and demand structure. Based on first-hand official data from China’s national population censuses and the statistical bulletin on the cause of aging issued by the Ministry of Civil Affairs, combined with the practical development of urban and rural elderly care, this study constructs a compound pension reconstruction path featuring collaborative linkage of families, communities, institutions and markets, empowered by modern filial piety culture. The research provides theoretical support for improving aging-related public policies and advancing the National Strategy for Actively Responding to Population Aging.