生成式人工智能行政监管的科林格里奇困境及纾解路径

Research on the Collingridge Dilemma and Relief Paths of the Administrative Supervision of Generative Artificial Intelligence

摘要: 生成式人工智能的指数级迭代和建构性力量对既有行政监管范式形成冲击。其中，技术迭代与行政监管回应的时序张力，使我国行政监管面临科林格里奇困境。本文引入技科学视角重新阐释的科林格里奇困境理论，构建“困境–纾解”分析框架。从时间、知识与权力三维度，分别揭示技术迭代与监管滞后、技术黑箱与监管局限、技术跨域与监管碎片的困境表征，以及三重困境的反向联动和放大效应。进而，从技术、制度和效能维度剖析困境的发生逻辑，阐明三因素的交织固化机理。在审视欧盟严苛监管和美国宽松监管实践得失的基础上，融合适应治理理论和协同治理理论，提出动态监管、适配监管与协同监管互嵌的纾解路径，以在创新和安全的动态平衡中走出我国行政监管的科林格里奇困境。

Abstract: The exponential iteration and constitutive power of generative artificial intelligence have disrupted the established paradigm of administrative supervision. The temporal tension between technological iteration and regulatory response has placed China’s administrative supervision in the Collingridge dilemma. Drawing on the technoscience perspective to reinterpret the Collingridge dilemma, this paper constructs an analytical framework centered on “dilemma identification and relief”. From the time, knowledge, and power dimensions, it identifies the manifestations of the dilemma: the misalignment between technological iteration and regulatory lag, the opacity of technological black boxes and regulatory capacity constraints, cross-domain technology and fragmented supervision, as well as the reverse linkage and amplifying effect among the three dilemmas. It further analyzes the occurrence logic of the dilemma from the technological, institutional and effectiveness dimensions, and clarifies the intertwined and solidified mechanism of these three factors. On the basis of examining the strengths and weaknesses of strict supervision in the EU and flexible supervision in the US, this paper integrates adaptive governance and collaborative governance theories, and proposes an integrated relief path featuring dynamic supervision, adaptive supervision and collaborative supervision. The aim is to resolve the Collingridge dilemma in China’s administrative supervision and achieve a dynamic balance between technological innovation and security governance.