智慧养老背景下人口老龄化对产业结构升级的影响研究

A Study on the Impact of Population Aging on Industrial Structure Upgrading in the Context of Smart Elderly Care

摘要: 当前老年群体规模持续扩大，如何有效配置资源促进养老产业发展推动产业结构升级成为关键议题。本文利用2012~2024年中国省级面板数据，构建双向固定面板模型、门槛效应模型和中介效应模型检验我国人口老龄化对产业结构升级的影响及其作用机制，研究发现：人口老龄化有助于产业结构升级提升，要素市场发育在其中起中介作用。因此，地方政府应因地制宜实施差异化老龄化政策，加速要素市场发育促进产业结构升级实现高质量发展。

Abstract: The current elderly population is continuously growing, so figuring out how to effectively allocate resources to boost the development of the senior care industry and promote industrial upgrading has become a key topic. This article uses provincial panel data from China from 2012 to 2024, building two-way fixed panel models, threshold effect models, and mediation effect models to examine how population aging affects industrial upgrading and the mechanisms behind it. The study finds that population aging actually helps promote industrial upgrading, and the development of factor markets plays an intermediary role in this. Therefore, local governments should implement differentiated aging policies according to local conditions, accelerate the development of factor markets, promote industrial structure upgrading, and achieve high-quality development.