新型储能快速增长背景下我国天然气发电经济性及发展策略研究

Research on the Economic Efficiency and Development Strategies of Natural Gas Power Generation in China under the Background of Rapid Growth of New Energy Storage

摘要: “十四五”以来，随着新能源装机规模的爆发式增长，电力系统对灵活性调节资源的需求持续攀升。天然气发电与新型储能作为两类优质灵活性电源，其发展态势、技术经济特性及协同关系成为构建新型电力系统的关键议题。本文系统梳理了新型电力系统建设背景下灵活性电源的发展现状，重点分析了新型储能与天然气发电的技术进展、经济性及盈利模式，并深入探讨了二者的竞合关系。研究表明，储能在响应速度、部署周期和短时调节成本上具有显著优势，而气电在大容量、长周期能量平衡等方面不可替代，二者在时间尺度与系统功能上形成“短时高频用储能、长时低频用气电”的互补分工。基于此，本文从区域布局、场景配置、协同运行等维度提出发展策略建议。

Abstract: Since the “14th Five-Year Plan”, the explosive growth of new energy capacity has driven surging demand for flexible regulation resources in the power system. As two premium flexible power sources, their development trends, natural gas power generation and new energy storage—their technical and economic characteristics, and collaborative relationships—have become key topics in building a new power system. This paper reviews the development status of flexible power sources under the background of new power system construction, analyzes the technological progress, economics, and profit models of both new energy storage and gas power generation, and explores their competitive-cooperative relationship. Findings show that storage excels in response speed, deployment cycle, and short-duration regulation cost, while gas power is irreplaceable for large-capacity, long-duration energy balancing. The two form a complementary division: “storage for short-duration, high-frequency regulation; gas power for long-duration, low-frequency balancing”. Based on this, this paper proposes development strategy suggestions from aspects such as regional layout, scenario configuration, and coordinated operation.