武汉市水资源利用与经济增长的脱钩分析

Decoupling Analysis of Water Resources Utilization and Economics Growth in Wuhan

摘要: 为了探究具有丰水禀赋的超大城市水资源利用与经济发展的关系，本文基于2015~2024年武汉市相关公报的数据，运用水资源生态足迹评价和Tapio脱钩模型分析武汉市用水结构演变、水资源利用状态及总体和部门脱钩特征。结果表明：研究期内GDP增长93.54%，总用水量仅增长22.81%，用水结构由生产性用水占比较高的格局逐步转向生活、生产和生态环境用水多元配置；人均水资源生态足迹在0.45~0.59 hm²/人小幅波动，人均水资源生态承载力在0.17~2.58 hm²/人之间显著波动，生态赤字年份占70%，武汉在丰水禀赋下仍表现出阶段性水资源生态压力；强脱钩和弱脱钩合计占70%，经济增长对水资源消耗扩张的依赖总体减弱，但脱钩关系尚不稳定；工业和农业用水与相应增加值在多数年份呈脱钩状态，农业部门波动幅度更大。研究可为武汉落实水资源刚性约束、优化用水结构并促进形成稳定脱钩关系提供参考。

Abstract: To investigate the relationship between water resources utilization and economic development in a water-abundant megacity, this study uses data from official Wuhan bulletins for 2015~2024 and applies water resources ecological footprint assessment and the Tapio decoupling model to examine changes in the water use structure, water resources utilization status, and overall and sectoral decoupling characteristics. The results show that, during the study period, GDP increased by 93.54%, whereas total water use increased by only 22.81%. The water use structure shifted from dominated by productive water use toward a more diversified allocation among domestic, productive, and ecological-environmental uses. The water resources ecological footprint per capita fluctuated slightly between 0.45 and 0.59 hm² per person, while the water resources ecological carrying capacity per capita varied markedly from 0.17 to 2.58 hm² per person. Ecological deficits occurred in 70% of the study years, indicating that it still exhibited stage-dependent ecological pressure on water resources despite its abundant water endowment. Strong and weak decoupling together accounted for 70% of the study years. The overall dependence of economic growth on the expansion of water consumption weakened, although the decoupling relationship remained unstable. Water use in the industrial and agricultural sectors was decoupled from the corresponding sectoral value added in most years, with greater fluctuations observed in the agricultural sector. This study provides a reference to implement rigid constraints on water resources, and optimizes its water use structure, and promotes a more stable decoupling between water use and economic growth.