关于提升阿克苏机场趋势着陆预报质量的思考

Reflections on Improving the Quality of Trend Landing Forecasts at Aksu Airport

摘要: 为提升阿克苏机场趋势预报服务质量，本文对2021~2024年阿克苏机场气象台趋势预报数据展开分析，结果表明：(1) 2021~2024年趋势预报发布份数有所下滑，同时预报准确率有所下降，反映服务主动性不足；(2) 对趋势预报漏报、空报情况进行分析，偏差以漏报为主，风、能见度、雷暴为核心影响要素；(3) 漏报、空报与季节关联显著，4~8月因对流天气等更易高发；(4) 可通过深化天气研判、加密观测网络、推进技术本地化、迭代预报员思维，系统性提升趋势预报准确率。

Abstract: To enhance the quality of trend forecast services at Aksu Airport, this study analyzes trend forecast data from the Aksu Airport Meteorological Office spanning from 2021 to 2024. The results indicate that: (1) Both the volume of trend forecasts issued and the forecast accuracy have declined over this period, reflecting a lack of proactive service; (2) An analysis of missed and false alarms reveals that missed forecasts constitute the primary source of deviation, with wind, visibility, and thunderstorms identified as the core contributing meteorological elements; (3) Missed and false forecasts exhibit a significant seasonal correlation, with a higher incidence from April to August due to frequent convective weather; (4) Forecast accuracy can be systematically improved by deepening weather analysis, densifying the observation network, advancing localized forecasting technologies, and upgrading forecasters’ analytical thinking.