跨境电商发展对家庭返贫风险的影响——基于CFPS的经验证据

Cross-Border E-Commerce Development and Household Poverty-Return Risk: Empirical Evidence from CFPS

摘要: 跨境电商作为数字贸易的重要形态，在拓展市场机会、促进经济活动的同时，也可能通过劳动力市场调整对不同家庭产生差异化影响。本文基于2014~2022年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据，采用固定效应模型考察跨境电商发展对家庭返贫风险的影响及其作用机制。研究结果表明，跨境电商发展显著提高了家庭未来返贫风险，该结论在一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。异质性分析表明，跨境电商发展的风险效应在农业户口、大规模家庭及低人力资本家庭中更为明显。进一步机制分析表明，跨境电商发展通过提高最低工资标准影响家庭返贫风险，劳动力市场调整可能成为跨境电商影响家庭返贫风险的重要传导渠道。研究结果表明，跨境电商带来的发展机会并非所有家庭均能充分分享，风险承受能力较弱的家庭可能更容易受到其伴随的劳动力市场调整影响。

Abstract: As an important form of digital trade, cross-border e-commerce expands market opportunities and promotes economic activity, but it may also exert heterogeneous effects on different households through labor market adjustments. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) for 2014~2022, this paper employs a fixed effects model to examine the impact of cross-border e-commerce development on household poverty-return risk and its underlying mechanisms. The results show that cross-border e-commerce development significantly increases households’ future poverty-return risk, and this conclusion remains robust after a series of robustness checks. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the risk effect of cross-border e-commerce development is more pronounced among households with agricultural household registration, large household size, and low human capital. Further mechanism analysis reveals that cross-border e-commerce development affects household poverty-return risk by raising the minimum wage standard, suggesting that labor market adjustment may serve as an important transmission channel through which cross-border e-commerce influences household poverty-return risk. These findings indicate that the development opportunities brought by cross-border e-commerce are not fully shared by all households, and households with weaker risk-bearing capacity may be more vulnerable to the accompanying labor market adjustments.